View source for User:VinnyB/Runlength

Baseline run length, under the following assumptions:
* +/- 25% CF is trivially available
* Drops and other thresholds are cappable
* Banishers are available, but turntaking
* Day 1 Shen
Council quests:
* L2: [[The Spooky Forest|Sp. Forest]]: 7.5 total (5<sup>D</sup>+1<sup>NC</sup>÷<abbr title="base 85% → 60% CF">40%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr>)
* L3: [[Tavern Cellar|Tavern]]: 5.575 total (<abbr title="body">1</abbr>+<abbr title="potential rats: 3 first region + 2 second region + 0-3 third region">6.5</abbr>×<abbr title="base 80% → 55% CF">55%<sup>CF</sup></abbr>+<abbr title="faucet">1</abbr>)
* L4: [[The Bat Hole|Bats]]: 14 total (<abbr title="sonars drop @ base 10%">1</abbr> [[Guano Junction|guano]], <abbr title="3-5 shen snake delay">4<sup>D</sup></abbr>+<abbr title="shen snake">1</abbr> [[Batrat and Ratbat Burrow|ratbats]], <abbr title="1 beanbat + ~1 to find it in a 3-monster zone">2</abbr> [[Beanbat Chamber|beanbat]], <abbr title="4-6 delay">5</abbr><sup>D</sup>+ ~<abbr title="not guaranteed immediately!">1</abbr> [[The Boss Bat's Lair|boss]])
* L5: [[Cobb's Knob|Goblins]]: 15 total (10<sup>D</sup>+1 [[The Outskirts of Cobb's Knob|outskirts]], <abbr title="1 harem girl + ~1 to find it in a 3-monster zone + 1 turn for perfume">3</abbr> [[Cobb's Knob Harem|harem]], 1 [[Throne Room|king]])
* L6: [[Copse of the Deep Fat Friars|Friars]]: 33.78 total (<abbr title="intros">3</abbr><sup>NC</sup>÷<abbr title="base 95% → 70% CF">30%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr>×<abbr title="pity NC after 5 combats">(1 - .7^6)</abbr> + 9<sup>NC</sup>÷30%<sup>NCF</sup>×<abbr title="pity NC after 4 combats">(1 - .7^5)</abbr>)
* L7: [[The Defiled Cyrpt|Cyrpt]]: 47.5 total (<abbr title="kill 8 moderns = 40 progress">8</abbr> [[The Defiled Alcove|alcove]], <abbr title="banish party">1</abbr>+<abbr title="kill 10 eyeholders = 40 progress">10</abbr> [[The Defiled Nook|nook]], <abbr title="banish all non-dirty">3</abbr>+<abbr title="kill 13 dirty = 39 progress">13</abbr> [[The Defiled Niche|niche]], 3<sup>NC</sup>÷<abbr title="base 85% → 60% CF">40%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr> [[The Defiled Cranny|cranny]], 5 bosses) -- assumes a 3-swarm cranny
* L8: [[Mt. McLargeHuge|Mountain]]: 20.87 total (<abbr title="banish non-dairy">2</abbr>+<abbr title="dairy">3</abbr> [[The Goatlet|goats]], <abbr title="actual mining is awful and should never be done">3?</abbr> ore, <abbr title="3-5 shen snake delay">4<sup>D</sup></abbr>+<abbr title="shen snake">1</abbr>+<abbr title="base 12.5% ninjass + 1.5%/turn; .875*.86*.845*.83*(.20*1+.80*(.215*2+.785*(.23*3+.77*(.245*4+.755*(.26*5+.74*6))))) = 1.87 additional turns to find ninjass #1">1.87</abbr>+<abbr title="ninjass copies">2</abbr> [[Lair of the Ninja Snowmen|ninjass]], <abbr titles="yetis">3</abbr>+<abbr title="groar">1</abbr> [[The Mist-Shrouded Peak|peak]]) -- assumes 3-turn ore (somehow) and 2 copy effects for ninjass
* L9: [[The Orc Chasm|Orc Chasm]]: 33.94 total (<abbr title="3 blechs">12</abbr> [[The Smut Orc Logging Camp|chasm]], <abbr title="ghosts">4</abbr>+<abbr title="clues">3</abbr>+<abbr title="light">1</abbr> [[A-boo Peak|a-boo]], 4<sup>NC</sup>× ~<abbr title="ignoring queue, turns per NC are X=NCF*1+CF*(3/8 × 2+ 5/8 × (1+X)) → X=(1+CF*3/8)/(1-CF*5/8); base 85% → 60% CF → X=1.96">1.96<sup>turns/NC</sup></abbr> [[Twin Peak|twin]], <abbr title="oil cartels">5</abbr>+<abbr title="light">1</abbr> [[Oil Peak|oil]])
* L10: [[The Beanstalk|Giants]]: 47.78 total (25<sup>D</sup>+<abbr title="80% chance of NC being Cid">1.25<sup>NC</sup></abbr>÷<abbr title="base 80% → 55% CF">45%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr> [[The Penultimate Fantasy Airship|airship]], 1<sup>NC</sup>÷<abbr title="base 95% → 70% CF">30%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr> [[The Castle in the Clouds in the Sky (Basement)|castle BM]], 10<sup>D</sup>+1 [[The Castle in the Clouds in the Sky (Ground Floor)|castle GF]], <abbr title="3-5 shen snake delay">4<sup>D</sup></abbr>+<abbr title="shen snake">1</abbr>+<abbr title="trash quest completion, if not found already">.7^4<sup>NC</sup></abbr>÷<abbr title="base 95% → 70% CF">30%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr>×<abbr title="pity NC after 9 (?) combats">(1 - .7^5)</abbr> [[The Castle in the Clouds in the Sky (Top Floor)|castle TF]]) -- assumes all immateria found within airship delay
* L11: MacGuffin: 228.92 total:
** Start: 16 (<abbr title="intro">1</abbr>+<abbr title="~20 progress">4</abbr>+<abbr title="bush">1</abbr>+<abbr title="~20 progress">4</abbr>+<abbr title="galoshes">1</abbr>+<abbr title="~14 progress">2</abbr> [[The Black Forest|bl.forest]], 3 [[The Shore, Inc. Travel Agency|shore]])
*** [[Spookyraven Manor|Spookyraven]]: 56.67 (<abbr title="4 progress/fight; need 21 before key can drop">6</abbr>+1 [[The Haunted Kitchen|kitchen]], 2<sup>NC</sup>÷<abbr title="base 85% → 60% CF">40%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr> [[The Haunted Billiards Room|billiards]], <abbr title="banish non-desk">2</abbr>+<abbr title="kill 5 desks">5</abbr> [[The Haunted Library|library]], 5<sup>D</sup>+1<sup>NC</sup>÷<abbr title="base 90% → 65% CF">35%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr> [[The Haunted Gallery|gallery]], 5<sup>D</sup>+1<sup>NC</sup>÷<abbr title="base 90% → 65% CF">35%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr> [[The Haunted Bathroom|bathroom]], 6<sup>D</sup>+1 [[The Haunted Bedroom|bedroom]], 5<sup>D</sup>+<abbr title="let X = turns before superlikely. X = 1/4*0+3/4*(X+CF*1+NCF*0) → X=3*CF. base 90% → 65% CF → X=1.95 turns">1.95</abbr>+<abbr title="cellar unlock">1</abbr> [[The Haunted Ballroom|ballroom]], <abbr title="cabinet + ~1 to find it in a 3-monster zone">2</abbr> [[The Haunted Laundry Room|laundry]], <abbr title="wine rack + ~1 to find it in a 3-monster zone">2</abbr> [[The Haunted Wine Cellar|wine]], 2 [[The Haunted Boiler Room|boiler]], 1 [[Lord Spookyraven|boss]])
*** Hidden City: 60.25 (4<sup>NC</sup>÷<abbr title="base 85% → 60% CF">40%<sup>NCF</sup></abbr> [[The Spooky Forest|sp.forest]], 2 [[The Hidden Temple|temple]], 6.5? [[The Hidden Park|park]], 5+1+4+1 [[The Hidden Office Building|office]], 3+5+1 [[The Hidden Apartment Building|apt]], 1+5+5 [[The Hidden Bowling Alley|bowl]], 1+3.75+1 [[The Hidden Hospital|hosp]], 4 spheres, 1 boss) -- assumes Sheep card
*** Talisman: 45.5 (15.5 shen, 4 mob, 3+5+1 zep, 3+4+5 palindome, 4 whitey, 1 boss) -- assumes 4 lucky & +400 sleaze @ mob
**** Ed: 50.5 (3 shore, 21?+2.5 desert, 5 upper pyr, 10 middle pyr, 2 wheel, 7 ed)
* L12: War: 93 total (1 war frat, 9 shore, 4? start, 6? gremlins, 5(3) sonofa, 4 filthworms, 10? nuns, 1+8+8+26+1 battlefield) -- assumes +900% meat @ nuns
* L13: NS: 12 total (3 contest, 4 hedge, 3 wall, 1 reflection, 1 NS)
** Tower prep: 49 total (5 FR, 9 DD, 25 8-bit, 9? HITS, 1 wand) -- assumes Tower key & clover wand
Total: 7.5 + 5.575 + 14 + 15 + 33.78 + 47.5 + 20.87 + 33.94 + 47.78 + 228.92 + 93 + 12 + 49 = 608.87

(To estimate a reasonable run length for a given path, start here and deduct available turnsavings)