Talk:Rushing bum: Difference between revisions

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===Statistics===
==Statistics==
<TABLE BORDER=1px CELLPADDING=3 CELLSPACING=0>
{| style="text-align: center; margin-top: .5em" border="1px" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3"
<TR style="background: #EEEEEE"><TD>Era</TD><TD>Date</TD><TD>Encountered</TD><TD>[[bum cheek]]</TD><TD>[[Mad Train wine]]</TD><TD>[[moxie weed]]</TD><TD>Information</TD><TD>Source</TD></TR>
|- style="background: #EEEEEE"
<TR ALIGN=CENTER><TD ROWSPAN=6 style="background: #EEEEEE">Era 1</TD><TD>29-Mar-06</TD><TD>877</TD><TD>329</TD><TD>308</TD><TD>167</TD><TD>Item Drop Bonus: +20%</TD><TD>[[User:Yiab|Yiab]]</TD></TR>
! Era
<TR ALIGN=CENTER><TD>29-Mar-06</TD><TD>174</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>89</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>Item Drop Bonus: +40%</TD><TD>[[User:Yiab|Yiab]]</TD></TR>
! Date
<TR ALIGN=CENTER><TD>29-Mar-06</TD><TD>123</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>Item Drop Bonus: +0%</TD><TD>[[User:Yiab|Yiab]]</TD></TR>
! Encountered
! [[bum cheek]]
! [[Mad Train wine]]
! [[moxie weed]]
! [[dented harmonica]]
! Information
! Source
|-
! rowspan="3" | 1
| 29-Mar-06
| 877
| 329
| 308
| 167
| rowspan="3" | N/A
| Item Drop Bonus: +20%
| rowspan="3" | [[User:Yiab|Yiab]]
|-
| 29-Mar-06
| 174
| 80
| 89
| 43
| Item Drop Bonus: +40%
|-
| 29-Mar-06
| 123
| 31
| 35
| 30
| Item Drop Bonus: +0%
|-
! rowspan="4" | 2
| rowspan="3" | 20-21 May 09
|264
| rowspan="4" colspan="2" | N/A
|143
|164
| Item Drop Bonus: +280.8715%
| rowspan="4" | [[User:Flargen|Flargen]]
|-
|293
|178
|169
| Item Drop Bonus: +299.8715<br />(wh: 45)
|-
|238
|142
|144
| Item Drop Bonus: +298.4404%
|-
! style="background-color: #EEEEEE" colspan="2" | Observed Rates<br />(error)
|14.78%<br />(.444%)
|15.26%<br />(.441%)
|&nbsp;
|}
*Added data taken after the [[dented harmonica]] drop was added.  For some reason, Yiab saw far too many moxie weed drops, resulting in his calculating a 17% drop rate.  The correct rate is 15%, same as for the dented harmonica.  No data is listed for the wine and cheek in era 2 because the amount of +items I was running was more than enough to make them 100% drops.  They're both 30%.  --[[User:Flargen|Flargen]] 23:20, 24 May 2009 (UTC)


</TABLE>
{| border="1px" style="text-align: center; margin-top: 1em" cellspacing=0 cellpadding=5
|- style="background-color: #EEEEEE"
! Source
! Bonus
! Encountered
! {{plural|bum cheek}}
! {{plural|dented harmonica}}
! {{plural|Mad Train wine}}
! {{plural|moxie weed}}
|-
! rowspan="11" | [[User:Flargen|Flargen]]
! style="background-color: #F8F8F8; text-align: left" | +184.7966%
| 73
| 64
|29
|62
| 32
|-
! style="background-color: #F8F8F8; text-align: left" | +199.8035%
| 412
| 395
|183
|370
| 180
|-
! style="background-color: #F8F8F8; text-align: left" | +334.5622%
| 84
| 84
| 57
| 84
|57
|-
! style="background-color: #F8F8F8; text-align: left" | +252.4404%
| 26
| 26
| 14
| 26
|15
|-
! style="background-color: #F8F8F8; text-align: left" | +52%
| 77
| 40
| 19
| 36
|26
|-
! style="background-color: #F8F8F8; text-align: left" | +62%
| 37
| 21
| 5
| 17
| 16
|-
!colspan="2"  style="background-color: #EEEEEE"| Observed Rates<br/>(std. err.)
|.3192<br />(.00306)
|.1532<br />(.00409)
|.3004<br />(.00434)
|.1516<br />(.00382)
|}
New data while reworking drop rates in the alley.  Cheek's actually 32%.  I had previously assumed that the 5% granularity still applied, but turns out it doesn't to such early monsters.  The analysis includes the data in the previous table (except for the wallaby-hound data, since I didn't feel like adding support for that into my current spreadsheet; that data is enough to force the harmonica to 15%).  --[[User:Flargen|Flargen]] 07:00, 23 September 2011 (CEST)
 
==[[cheap cigar butt]] spading==
Initial spading (225 turns, 39 pickpocket attempts) gives about a 65% chance of getting the cheap cigar butt. By chance I mean when you pickpocket, that % of the time you will get the item (because sometimes you get other items). Spading will continue until I have at least 100 pickpocket attempts. --[[User:Lordebon|Lordebon]] 17:08, 21 March 2009 (UTC)
 
==Pickpocket Data==
{| cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1px" style="margin-top: .5em"
|- style="background-color:#EFEFEF;"
! Outcome
! Total
! Percent
|----
|<font color="red">Nothing</font>
!105
!{{#expr:100*(105/712) round 2}}
|----
|[[bum cheek]]
!62
!{{#expr:100*(62/712) round 2}}
|----
|[[dented harmonica]]
!31
!{{#expr:100*(31/712) round 2}}
|----
|[[Mad Train wine]]
!56
!{{#expr:100*(56/712) round 2}}
|----
|[[moxie weed]]
!28
!{{#expr:100*(28/712) round 2}}
|----
|[[cheap cigar butt]]
!430
!{{#expr:100*(430/712) round 2}}
|---- style="height:30px"
|'''Total'''
!712
!100
|}
 
--[[User:GoldS|GoldS]] 23:51, 3 November 2009 (UTC)

Latest revision as of 05:02, 23 September 2011

Statistics

Era Date Encountered bum cheek Mad Train wine moxie weed dented harmonica Information Source
1 29-Mar-06 877 329 308 167 N/A Item Drop Bonus: +20% Yiab
29-Mar-06 174 80 89 43 Item Drop Bonus: +40%
29-Mar-06 123 31 35 30 Item Drop Bonus: +0%
2 20-21 May 09 264 N/A 143 164 Item Drop Bonus: +280.8715% Flargen
293 178 169 Item Drop Bonus: +299.8715
(wh: 45)
238 142 144 Item Drop Bonus: +298.4404%
Observed Rates
(error) 		14.78%
(.444%) 		15.26%
(.441%) 		 
  • Added data taken after the dented harmonica drop was added. For some reason, Yiab saw far too many moxie weed drops, resulting in his calculating a 17% drop rate. The correct rate is 15%, same as for the dented harmonica. No data is listed for the wine and cheek in era 2 because the amount of +items I was running was more than enough to make them 100% drops. They're both 30%. --Flargen 23:20, 24 May 2009 (UTC)
Source Bonus Encountered bum cheeks dented harmonicas Mad Train wines moxie weeds
Flargen +184.7966% 73 64 29 62 32
+199.8035% 412 395 183 370 180
+334.5622% 84 84 57 84 57
+252.4404% 26 26 14 26 15
+52% 77 40 19 36 26
+62% 37 21 5 17 16
Observed Rates
(std. err.) 		.3192
(.00306) 		.1532
(.00409) 		.3004
(.00434) 		.1516
(.00382)

New data while reworking drop rates in the alley. Cheek's actually 32%. I had previously assumed that the 5% granularity still applied, but turns out it doesn't to such early monsters. The analysis includes the data in the previous table (except for the wallaby-hound data, since I didn't feel like adding support for that into my current spreadsheet; that data is enough to force the harmonica to 15%). --Flargen 07:00, 23 September 2011 (CEST)

cheap cigar butt spading

Initial spading (225 turns, 39 pickpocket attempts) gives about a 65% chance of getting the cheap cigar butt. By chance I mean when you pickpocket, that % of the time you will get the item (because sometimes you get other items). Spading will continue until I have at least 100 pickpocket attempts. --Lordebon 17:08, 21 March 2009 (UTC)

Pickpocket Data

Outcome Total Percent
Nothing 105 14.75
bum cheek 62 8.71
dented harmonica 31 4.35
Mad Train wine 56 7.87
moxie weed 28 3.93
cheap cigar butt 430 60.39
Total 712 100

--GoldS 23:51, 3 November 2009 (UTC)

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