User:Pnan: Difference between revisions
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imported>Pnan Feel free to add to, edit, clean up, make pretty, etc this User Page (MMG stuff) im a html n00b |
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[[image:Oldman.gif|center]] | |||
Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ '''{X}''' = | ==Martingale System Analysis for the MMG== | ||
Let '''{B}''' equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by '''{M}''' upon each loss. | |||
<table border=1, center> | |||
<tr> | |||
<td>Bet #</td> | |||
<td>Bet value</td> | |||
<td>Net Meat after Losing '''N''' Bets</td> | |||
<td>Net Meat after Winning the '''N'''th Bet</td> | |||
</tr> | |||
<tr> | |||
<td>N</td> | |||
<td>'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>)</td> | |||
<td>-'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1)</td> | |||
<td>'''B'''-.002'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>))</td> | |||
</tr> | |||
</table> | |||
==Calculating Initial Bet== | |||
*for '''{M}'''=2 | |||
Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ '''{X}''' = '''{B}''' | |||
(Double your bet if you lose) | (Double your bet if you lose) | ||
| Line 16: | Line 42: | ||
<td>chance of losing it all</td> | <td>chance of losing it all</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>1</td> | <td>1</td> | ||
| Line 22: | Line 47: | ||
<td>50%</td> | <td>50%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>2</td> | <td>2</td> | ||
| Line 29: | Line 52: | ||
<td>25%</td> | <td>25%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>3</td> | <td>3</td> | ||
| Line 37: | Line 57: | ||
<td>12.5%</td> | <td>12.5%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>4</td> | <td>4</td> | ||
| Line 45: | Line 62: | ||
<td>6.25%</td> | <td>6.25%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>5</td> | <td>5</td> | ||
| Line 53: | Line 67: | ||
<td>3.125%</td> | <td>3.125%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>6</td> | <td>6</td> | ||
| Line 61: | Line 72: | ||
<td>1.5625%</td> | <td>1.5625%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>7</td> | <td>7</td> | ||
| Line 69: | Line 77: | ||
<td>0.78125%</td> | <td>0.78125%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>8</td> | <td>8</td> | ||
| Line 77: | Line 82: | ||
<td>0.390625%</td> | <td>0.390625%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>9</td> | <td>9</td> | ||
| Line 85: | Line 87: | ||
<td>0.1953125%</td> | <td>0.1953125%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>10</td> | <td>10</td> | ||
| Line 93: | Line 92: | ||
<td>0.09765625%</td> | <td>0.09765625%</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
</table> | |||
...where '''X'''='''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1 | |||
the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns. | |||
== Playing with Caution == | |||
If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. See [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy Gambler's Fallacy] Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop. | |||
A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets | A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the ''illusion'' of having a better chance). If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit. Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses. | ||
Revision as of 04:54, 13 October 2008
Martingale System Analysis for the MMG
Let {B} equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by {M} upon each loss.
| Bet # | Bet value | Net Meat after Losing N Bets | Net Meat after Winning the Nth Bet |
| N | B(MN-1) | -B(MN-1) | B-.002B(MN-1)) |
Calculating Initial Bet
- for {M}=2
Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ {X} = {B}
(Double your bet if you lose)
I am confident that I will not lose {N} bets in a row
| {N} | {X} | chance of losing it all |
| 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 2 | 3 | 25% |
| 3 | 7 | 12.5% |
| 4 | 15 | 6.25% |
| 5 | 31 | 3.125% |
| 6 | 63 | 1.5625% |
| 7 | 127 | 0.78125% |
| 8 | 255 | 0.390625% |
| 9 | 511 | 0.1953125% |
| 10 | 1023 | 0.09765625% |
...where X=MN-1
the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns.
Playing with Caution
If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. See Gambler's Fallacy Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.
A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the illusion of having a better chance). If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit. Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.
