User:Lilac/QuestData

NERD TIME

I wrote a fairly straightforward KoL quest simulator in Java. It takes the encounter queues, Olfaction, banishing, and any known special mechanics into account, and assumes ideal decision-making for each quest. Each quest is hand-coded to reflect the decisions you'd make while doing it. 1,000,000 samples are run for each quest.

The end goal of this is to produce average turn yields for each quest under varying conditions, which is useful to speedrunners, and also to generate the standard deviation of each quest, which helps us identify which parts of the game are actually the most RNG-swingy. If you're unfamiliar with standard deviation, take a look at its Wikipedia article for a fairly good explanation.

HC Speedrun Quests Ordered by Stdev

Quest	Turns	Stdev	Notes
Desert / Oasis	32.5 turns	8.8 turns	- Assumes you have the drum machine in time (big assumption) - Assumes 33% superlikely rates - Assumes no clovers or Hipster/Goth fights - Includes finding the Oasis
The Palindome	15.4 turns	6.7 turns	+10% combat, +234% item, makes many assumptions about the superlikelies
DoD unlock	9.8 turns	5.8 turns	-20% combat, does not include free Teleportitis re-rolls when it sends you to a skippable NC
Friars	24.7 turns	5.5 turns	-20% combat, assumes you have 234% food drops
Sonofa Beach (1 barrel)	5.0 turns	4.5 turns	+10% combat, assumes you faxed and quake-arrowed 4 barrels
Dungeons of Doom (zap wand)	5.8 turns	4.2 turns	-20% combat, does not include boxen or DoD unlock
The Spooky Forest (temple map)	11.1 turns	4.0 turns	-20% combat, does not include mosquito larva
Castle Top Floor	7.5 turns	3.9 turns	-20% combat, assumes Mohawk wig and model airship
Insults + Insult Beer Pong	18.7 turns	3.8 turns	+10% combat, 6 insults, 1-turn map, includes 4 quest turns
Obligatory Pirate's Cove (outfit)	9.0 turns	3.7 turns	-20% combat, +200% item drop
The Upper Chamber	13.2 turns	3.0 turns	+300% item drop, 2 tangles, gets and places wheel with -20% combat
The Haunted Billiards Room	9.2 turns	2.9 turns	-15% combat
The Haunted Bedroom	11.0 turns	2.9 turns	-15% combat, includes getting spectacles
The Defiled Cranny	8.0 turns	2.9 turns	-20% combat, +64 ML, does not include fighting the boss
Castle Basement	3.8 turns	2.8 turns	-20% combat, assumes amulet
The F'c'le	6.6 turns	2.5 turns	+10% combat, no banishing, does not include the final fledges turn
Belowdecks	5.1 turns	2.3 turns	No guitar needed, sniffs but does not banish
The Haunted Library	7.5 turns	1.9 turns	-15% combat, does not unlock Gallery
Smut Orc Logging Camp	19.8 turns	1.4 turns	+200% items, loadstone but no hatchet (i.e. Knoll sign), bridge but no clovers

The Haunted Billiards Room

Assumes you get a hand chalk during the delay. We're done when we've hit the noncombat.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	9.9	4.2
-5% combat	9.3	3.7
-10% combat	8.8	3.3
-15% combat	8.4	3.1
-20% combat	8.2	2.9
-25% combat	8.0	2.8

The Haunted Library

Just calculating this for the stdev, since we're done after 1 noncombat. (It assumes you're not unlocking the Gallery.)

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	9.0	3.5
-5% combat	8.3	2.8
-10% combat	7.9	2.3
-15% combat	7.5	1.9
-20% combat	7.2	1.6
-25% combat	7.0	1.4

The Haunted Bedroom

We're done when we have Spookyraven's spectacles and have encountered the wooden nightstand twice.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	12.2	3.7
-5% combat	11.7	3.4
-10% combat	11.3	3.1
-15% combat	11.0	2.9
-20% combat	10.7	2.7

The Spooky Forest (temple map)

Does not include the mosquito larva and therefore the 5-turn delay. Assumes the last turn you spent in the zone was getting the larva (i.e. you have a fresh Arboreal Respite superlikely timer). We're done when we've received Arboreal Respite four times.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	19.4	5.4
-5% combat	16.6	5.2
-10% combat	14.4	4.8
-15% combat	12.6	4.4
-20% combat	11.1	4.0
-25% combat	9.8	3.5

Friars

DOES wait for 3 hot wings, but assumes you have 234% food drops at all times. Takes NC ceilings into account. We're done when we have all 3 items and 3 hot wings.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	39.1	5.6
-5% combat	35.1	6.1
-10% combat	31.2	6.3
-15% combat	27.7	6.0
-20% combat	24.7	5.5
-25% combat	22.1	4.9

The Defiled Cranny

Uses integer-perfect ML tiers because I don't know offhand how the random rounding works. Does not include the turn spent fighting the boss.

+49 ML

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	14.0	4.1
-5% combat	12.2	3.7
-10% combat	10.8	3.4
-15% combat	9.7	3.0
-20% combat	8.8	2.7
-25% combat	8.1	2.4

+64 ML

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	13.2	4.2
-5% combat	11.4	3.8
-10% combat	10.0	3.4
-15% combat	8.9	3.1
-20% combat	8.0	2.9
-25% combat	7.3	2.6

+81 ML

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	12.5	4.4
-5% combat	10.7	3.8
-10% combat	9.4	3.3
-15% combat	8.4	2.9
-20% combat	7.6	2.6
-25% combat	6.9	2.4

+100 ML

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	11.8	4.6
-5% combat	10.0	4.0
-10% combat	8.7	3.4
-15% combat	7.8	2.9
-20% combat	7.0	2.4
-25% combat	6.4	2.1

Greater-Than Sign (DoD unlock)

Doesn't care about boxen. Assumes 25% rate for Oracle. Does not factor in free re-rolls of Teleportitis when it sends you to a skippable NC. We're done when we have gotten to the Oracle.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	15.6	9.4
-5% combat	13.3	8.0
-10% combat	11.7	7.0
-15% combat	10.6	6.3
-20% combat	9.8	5.8
-25% combat	9.1	5.4

Dungeons of Doom (zap wand)

Does not include turns spent unlocking the DoD (see above), and doesn't care about boxen. We're done once we get the lighting store.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	9.6	7.4
-5% combat	8.2	6.2
-10% combat	7.2	5.4
-15% combat	6.4	4.7
-20% combat	5.8	4.2
-25% combat	5.2	3.7

The Obligatory Pirate's Cove (outfit)

Assumes you have no pieces of the outfit to start. If a monster fails to drop an item and it's still in the queue when you hit a relevant NC, it will get that item; if not, it'll get the first item you don't have. Does not use a Slimeling, whose disgorge is less effective than a superfairy on monsters with 2+ equipment drops (i.e. all of the relevant pirates). We're done when we have all three outfit pieces.

Fixed combat rate (70%)

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+100% items	12.7	5.8
+150% items	12.0	5.5
+200% items	11.5	5.2
+250% items	11.0	5.0
+300% items	10.5	4.8
+350% items	10.0	4.6

Increasing combat rate makes this combat-drop-oriented route take more turns.

Fixed item drop rate (+200%)

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	11.5	5.2
-5% combat	10.7	4.8
-10% combat	10.1	4.3
-15% combat	9.5	4.0
-20% combat	9.0	3.7
-25% combat	8.6	3.4

Barrrney's Barrr

Assumes you are a non-Myst class at 0 drunkenness (to skip two of the NCs). Normally I'd include +combat tiers for this, but the difference between 80% combat and 100% combat for those conditions is only 0.75 turns, so I assume 90% combat rate for all instances (right in the middle). Assumes that getting the map is a flat +1 turn, which is included. ALSO INCLUDES 4 turns for booty crab, getting blueprints, getting dentures, and returning dentures. Subtract 5 turns from the averages but leave the stdevs the same if you want data without those fixed costs.

Insults	Avg. Turns	Stdev
3 insults	65.4	55.4
4 insults	25.3	13.6
5 insults	18.9	5.6
6 insults	18.7	3.8
7 insults	20.9	4.4
8 insults	26.5	7.1

The F'c'le

Assumes 234% item drops and that all clingy pirates are banished with cocktail napkins. DOES NOT INCLUDE the 1 turn spent getting the fledges.

No extra banishing

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	7.5	3.0
+5% combat	7.0	2.8
+10% combat	6.6	2.5
+15% combat	6.2	2.3
+20% combat	5.8	2.1

Banishes one of chatty/crusty

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	7.0	2.6
+5% combat	6.6	2.2
+10% combat	6.2	2.1
+15% combat	5.8	1.9
+20% combat	5.5	1.7

Banishes both chatty and crusty

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	6.6	2.2
+5% combat	6.2	1.9
+10% combat	5.8	1.7
+15% combat	5.5	1.5
+20% combat	5.1	1.3

Banishes everything that cannot drop a needed item

(i.e. if I already got a ball polish, banish the creamy pirate; only applies to challenge paths)

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	6.4	1.9
+5% combat	6.0	1.7
+10% combat	5.6	1.4
+15% combat	5.3	1.2
+20% combat	5.0	1.0

Smut Orc Logging Camp

All cases assume you use the bridge and no clovers. (Clovers save 3.5 turns with no items, 2.3 turns with 1 item, and 1.6 turns with both items.) This is for the quest post-August 14, 2013. If you have one of the two items, it auto-sniffs the first monster that drops the other bridge part. Otherwise, it will sniff one kind of bridge part if that part falls 5 or more behind the other part, and it has 25 or more of that other part. Assumes that the items each provide an independent 50% chance of an extra part. Does not include turn(s) spent to get the hatchet or loadstone.

With no special items

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+100% items	22.3	1.6
+150% items	21.9	1.4
+200% items	21.6	1.1
+250% items	21.3	0.9
+300% items	21.1	0.7

With either loadstone or hatchet

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+100% items	20.3	1.1
+150% items	20.1	1.2
+200% items	19.8	1.4
+250% items	19.6	1.4
+300% items	19.3	1.5

With both items

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+100% items	16.3	1.8
+150% items	16.0	1.8
+200% items	15.6	1.8
+250% items	15.3	1.8
+300% items	15.0	1.7

Castle Basement

Includes the turn ceiling on NCs. All cases correctly transverse the NCs. We're done when the Ground Floor is unlocked.

With no special items

Gets and uses the dumbbell.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	18.8	6.2
-5% combat	15.2	6.2
-10% combat	12.4	5.8
-15% combat	10.3	5.2
-20% combat	8.6	4.6
-25% combat	7.4	4.0

With an umbrella but no amulet

Uses the umbrella if it can, and tries for the dumbbell while doing so.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	14.9	7.1
-5% combat	12.0	6.6
-10% combat	9.9	6.0
-15% combat	8.2	5.3
-20% combat	6.9	4.6
-25% combat	5.9	4.0

With an amulet

First NC always clears it.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	8.0	3.0
-5% combat	6.5	3.4
-10% combat	5.4	3.3
-15% combat	4.5	3.1
-20% combat	3.8	2.8
-25% combat	3.2	2.4

Castle Top Floor

All cases assume you have a model airship and that you need to unlock the HitS. Includes the turn ceiling on NCs. We're done when the wheel is turned and we have the rocketship.

Without Mohawk wig

Solves both parts from the Steampunk NC, getting the wheel first to enable universal travel to that NC.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	22.1	8.9
-5% combat	17.9	8.2
-10% combat	14.7	7.4
-15% combat	12.3	6.6
-20% combat	10.4	5.7
-25% combat	8.9	5.0

With Mohawk wig

Gets the wheel first however it can, then gets the HitS.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	16.1	4.3
-5% combat	13.0	4.8
-10% combat	10.7	4.7
-15% combat	8.9	4.4
-20% combat	7.5	3.9
-25% combat	6.5	3.5

Desert / Oasis

Assumes you have a drum machine by the appropriate adventure, which I realize is a big assumption. Includes finding the Oasis in the first place. Assumes no clovers are used on Ultrahydrated. Assumes all D/O superlikelies are 33%. Assumes no Hipster/Goth fights. We're done when we have the worm-riding hooks.

Avg. Turns	Stdev
32.5	8.8

Belowdecks

Assumes you don't need a guitar, that you sniff the gaudy pirate, and that you don't banish anything. We're done when we have two gaudy keys.

Avg. Turns	Stdev
5.1	2.3

The Palindome

Assumes 234% item drops (to guarantee 1-turn ketchup hound and stunt nuts) and that all superlikelies (shelf items, Drawn Onward) are 25% rolls unaffected by combat rate.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	15.6	6.6
+5% combat	15.5	6.6
+10% combat	15.4	6.7
+15% combat	15.4	6.7
+20% combat	15.3	6.7

The Upper Chamber

All cases assume you sniff tomb rats. Does not include the turns spent rotating the Lower Chamber or fighting Ed. I haven't included banishing, but each monster you perma-banish with a turn-consuming banisher saves you roughly 1.0 - 1.5 turns. We're done when we have enough ratchets to complete all rotations with the listed setup.

Farm 9 ratchets, place the wheel, no tangles

Assumes you find the wheel while getting ratchets. Assumes -20% combat for placing the wheel.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+150% items	27.1	6.1
+200% items	23.2	4.8
+250% items	20.5	3.8
+300% items	18.4	3.1
+350% items	16.8	2.6
+400% items (capped)	15.5	2.2

Farm 9 ratchets, place the wheel, 1 tangle

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+150% items	24.6	6.0
+200% items	20.7	4.7
+250% items	17.9	3.8
+300% items	15.8	3.1
+350% items	14.2	2.5
+400% items (capped)	12.9	2.1

Farm 9 ratchets, place the wheel, 2 tangles

Around here you have the chance to not get the wheel at all; subtract 1 turn from these if you assume that.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+150% items	22.0	6.0
+200% items	18.1	4.7
+250% items	15.3	3.7
+300% items	13.2	3.0
+350% items	11.6	2.6
+400% items (capped)	10.3	2.0

Farm 9 ratchets, place the wheel, 3 tangles

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+150% items	19.4	5.9
+200% items	15.5	4.6
+250% items	12.7	3.7
+300% items	10.6	2.9
+350% items	9.0	2.4
+400% items (capped)	7.8	1.9

Farm 11 ratchets, do not place wheel, no tangles

Still assumes you get the wheel, even though you don't use it.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+150% items	30.3	6.5
+200% items	25.6	5.0
+250% items	22.2	3.9
+300% items	19.6	3.1
+350% items	17.7	2.4
+400% items (capped)	16.1	1.8

Farm 11 ratchets, do not place wheel, 1 tangle

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+150% items	27.8	6.5
+200% items	23.0	5.0
+250% items	19.6	3.9
+300% items	17.0	3.0
+350% items	15.1	2.3
+400% items (capped)	13.5	1.6

Farm 11 ratchets, do not place wheel, 2 tangles

Around here you have the chance to not get the wheel at all; subtract 1 turn from these if you assume that.

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+150% items	25.2	6.4
+200% items	20.4	4.9
+250% items	17.0	3.8
+300% items	14.5	2.9
+350% items	12.5	2.2
+400% items (capped)	10.9	1.5

Farm 11 ratchets, do not place wheel, 3 tangles

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
+150% items	22.6	6.4
+200% items	17.8	4.9
+250% items	14.4	3.8
+300% items	11.9	2.9
+350% items	9.9	2.1
+400% items (capped)	8.3	1.4

Sonofa Beach

5 barrels

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	50.0	21.2
+5% combat	33.3	13.7
+10% combat	25.0	10.0
+15% combat	20.0	7.7
+20% combat	16.7	6.2
+25% combat	14.3	5.2

4 barrels

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	40.0	19.0
+5% combat	26.7	12.3
+10% combat	20.0	8.9
+15% combat	16.0	6.9
+20% combat	13.3	5.6
+25% combat	11.4	4.6

3 barrels

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	30.0	16.4
+5% combat	20.0	10.6
+10% combat	15.0	7.7
+15% combat	12.0	6.0
+20% combat	10.0	4.8
+25% combat	8.6	4.0

2 barrels

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	20.0	13.4
+5% combat	13.3	8.7
+10% combat	10.0	6.3
+15% combat	8.0	4.9
+20% combat	6.7	3.9
+25% combat	5.7	3.3

1 barrel

Modifiers	Avg. Turns	Stdev
none	10.0	9.4
+5% combat	6.7	6.1
+10% combat	5.0	4.5
+15% combat	4.0	3.4
+20% combat	3.3	2.8
+25% combat	2.9	2.3