User:Pnan: Difference between revisions
imported>Pnan MMG - User page - quick reference for others - how to calculate initial bet |
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==Martingale System Analysis for the MMG - Calculating Initial Bet== | ==Martingale System Analysis for the MMG - Calculating Initial Bet== | ||
Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ {X} = Initial Bet | Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ '''{X}''' = Initial Bet | ||
(Double your bet if you lose) | (Double your bet if you lose) | ||
I am confident that I will not lose {N} bets in a row | I am confident that I will not lose '''{N}''' bets in a row | ||
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<tr> | <tr> | ||
<td>{N}</td> | <td>'''{N}'''</td> | ||
<td>{X}</td> | <td>'''{X}'''</td> | ||
<td>chance of losing it all</td> | <td>chance of losing it all</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
| Line 99: | Line 100: | ||
Caution!! if you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop. | Caution!! if you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop. | ||
A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets won and 7 lost, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method | A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets won and 7 lost, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate. All bets are independent, so the order does not matter, but making successive bets linearly the illusion of having a better chance. If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit. Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses. | ||
Revision as of 22:44, 12 October 2008
Martingale System Analysis for the MMG - Calculating Initial Bet
Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ {X} = Initial Bet
(Double your bet if you lose)
I am confident that I will not lose {N} bets in a row
| {N} | {X} | chance of losing it all |
| 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 2 | 3 | 25% |
| 3 | 7 | 12.5% |
| 4 | 15 | 6.25% |
| 5 | 31 | 3.125% |
| 6 | 63 | 1.5625% |
| 7 | 127 | 0.78125% |
| 8 | 255 | 0.390625% |
| 9 | 511 | 0.1953125% |
| 10 | 1023 | 0.09765625% |
Caution!! if you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.
A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets won and 7 lost, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate. All bets are independent, so the order does not matter, but making successive bets linearly the illusion of having a better chance. If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit. Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.
