I wrote a fairly straightforward KoL quest simulator in Java. It takes the encounter queues, Olfaction, banishing, and any known special mechanics into account, and assumes ideal decision-making for each quest. Each quest is hand-coded to reflect the decisions you'd make while doing it. 1,000,000 samples are run for each quest.
The end goal of this is to produce average turn yields for each quest under varying conditions, which is useful to speedrunners, and also to generate the standard deviation of each quest, which helps us identify which parts of the game are actually the most RNG-swingy. If you're unfamiliar with standard deviation, take a look at its Wikipedia article for a fairly good explanation.
- No clovers, superwater, or Hipster/Goth fights - Assumes 33% superlikely rates - Includes finding a drum machine - Includes finding the Oasis
The Palindome
15.4 turns
6.7 turns
+10% combat, +234% item, makes many assumptions about the superlikelies
DoD unlock
9.8 turns
5.8 turns
-20% combat, does not include free Teleportitis re-rolls when it sends you to a skippable NC
Friars
24.7 turns
5.5 turns
-20% combat, assumes you have 234% food drops
Hippy Camp (start the war)
6.4 turns
4.9 turns
-20% combat, assumes you already have the outfit
Sonofa Beach (1 barrel)
5.0 turns
4.5 turns
+10% combat, assumes you faxed and quake-arrowed 4 barrels
Dungeons of Doom (zap wand)
5.8 turns
4.2 turns
-20% combat, does not include boxen or DoD unlock
The Spooky Forest (temple map)
11.1 turns
4.0 turns
-20% combat, does not include mosquito larva
Castle Top Floor
7.5 turns
3.9 turns
-20% combat, assumes Mohawk wig and model airship
Insults + Insult Beer Pong
18.7 turns
3.8 turns
+10% combat, 6 insults, 1-turn map, includes 4 quest turns
Obligatory Pirate's Cove (outfit)
9.0 turns
3.7 turns
-20% combat, +200% item drop
The Upper Chamber
13.2 turns
3.0 turns
+300% item drop, 2 tangles, gets and places wheel with -20% combat
The Haunted Billiards Room
9.2 turns
2.9 turns
-15% combat
The Haunted Bedroom
11.0 turns
2.9 turns
-15% combat, includes getting spectacles
The Defiled Cranny
8.0 turns
2.9 turns
-20% combat, +64 ML, does not include fighting the boss
Castle Basement
3.8 turns
2.8 turns
-20% combat, assumes amulet
The F'c'le
6.6 turns
2.5 turns
+10% combat, no banishing, does not include the final fledges turn
Belowdecks
5.1 turns
2.3 turns
No guitar needed, sniffs but does not banish
The Haunted Library
7.5 turns
1.9 turns
-15% combat, does not unlock Gallery
Smut Orc Logging Camp
19.8 turns
1.4 turns
+200% items, loadstone but no hatchet (i.e. Knoll sign), bridge but no clovers
The Haunted Billiards Room
Assumes you get a hand chalk during the delay. We're done when we've hit the noncombat.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
9.9
4.2
-5% combat
9.3
3.7
-10% combat
8.8
3.3
-15% combat
8.4
3.1
-20% combat
8.2
2.9
-25% combat
8.0
2.8
The Haunted Library
Just calculating this for the stdev, since we're done after 1 noncombat. (It assumes you're not unlocking the Gallery.)
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
9.0
3.5
-5% combat
8.3
2.8
-10% combat
7.9
2.3
-15% combat
7.5
1.9
-20% combat
7.2
1.6
-25% combat
7.0
1.4
The Haunted Bedroom
We're done when we have Spookyraven's spectacles and have encountered the wooden nightstand twice.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
12.2
3.7
-5% combat
11.7
3.4
-10% combat
11.3
3.1
-15% combat
11.0
2.9
-20% combat
10.7
2.7
The Spooky Forest (temple map)
Does not include the mosquito larva and therefore the 5-turn delay. Assumes the last turn you spent in the zone was getting the larva (i.e. you have a fresh Arboreal Respite superlikely timer). We're done when we've received Arboreal Respite four times.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
19.4
5.4
-5% combat
16.6
5.2
-10% combat
14.4
4.8
-15% combat
12.6
4.4
-20% combat
11.1
4.0
-25% combat
9.8
3.5
Friars
DOES wait for 3 hot wings, but assumes you have 234% food drops at all times. Takes NC ceilings into account. We're done when we have all 3 items and 3 hot wings.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
39.1
5.6
-5% combat
35.1
6.1
-10% combat
31.2
6.3
-15% combat
27.7
6.0
-20% combat
24.7
5.5
-25% combat
22.1
4.9
The Defiled Cranny
Uses integer-perfect ML tiers because I don't know offhand how the random rounding works. Does not include the turn spent fighting the boss.
+49 ML
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
14.0
4.1
-5% combat
12.2
3.7
-10% combat
10.8
3.4
-15% combat
9.7
3.0
-20% combat
8.8
2.7
-25% combat
8.1
2.4
+64 ML
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
13.2
4.2
-5% combat
11.4
3.8
-10% combat
10.0
3.4
-15% combat
8.9
3.1
-20% combat
8.0
2.9
-25% combat
7.3
2.6
+81 ML
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
12.5
4.4
-5% combat
10.7
3.8
-10% combat
9.4
3.3
-15% combat
8.4
2.9
-20% combat
7.6
2.6
-25% combat
6.9
2.4
+100 ML
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
11.8
4.6
-5% combat
10.0
4.0
-10% combat
8.7
3.4
-15% combat
7.8
2.9
-20% combat
7.0
2.4
-25% combat
6.4
2.1
Greater-Than Sign (DoD unlock)
Doesn't care about boxen. Assumes 25% rate for Oracle. Does not factor in free re-rolls of Teleportitis when it sends you to a skippable NC. We're done when we have gotten to the Oracle.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
15.6
9.4
-5% combat
13.3
8.0
-10% combat
11.7
7.0
-15% combat
10.6
6.3
-20% combat
9.8
5.8
-25% combat
9.1
5.4
Dungeons of Doom (zap wand)
Does not include turns spent unlocking the DoD (see above), and doesn't care about boxen. We're done once we get the lighting store.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
9.6
7.4
-5% combat
8.2
6.2
-10% combat
7.2
5.4
-15% combat
6.4
4.7
-20% combat
5.8
4.2
-25% combat
5.2
3.7
The Obligatory Pirate's Cove (outfit)
Assumes you have no pieces of the outfit to start. If a monster fails to drop an item and it's still in the queue when you hit a relevant NC, it will get that item; if not, it'll get the first item you don't have. Does not use a Slimeling, whose disgorge is less effective than a superfairy on monsters with 2+ equipment drops (i.e. all of the relevant pirates). We're done when we have all three outfit pieces.
Fixed combat rate (70%)
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+100% items
12.7
5.8
+150% items
12.0
5.5
+200% items
11.5
5.2
+250% items
11.0
5.0
+300% items
10.5
4.8
+350% items
10.0
4.6
Increasing combat rate makes this combat-drop-oriented route take more turns.
Fixed item drop rate (+200%)
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
11.5
5.2
-5% combat
10.7
4.8
-10% combat
10.1
4.3
-15% combat
9.5
4.0
-20% combat
9.0
3.7
-25% combat
8.6
3.4
Barrrney's Barrr
Assumes you are a non-Myst class at 0 drunkenness (to skip two of the NCs). Normally I'd include +combat tiers for this, but the difference between 80% combat and 100% combat for those conditions is only 0.75 turns, so I assume 90% combat rate for all instances (right in the middle). Assumes that getting the map is a flat +1 turn, which is included. ALSO INCLUDES 4 turns for booty crab, getting blueprints, getting dentures, and returning dentures. Subtract 5 turns from the averages but leave the stdevs the same if you want data without those fixed costs.
Insults
Avg. Turns
Stdev
3 insults
65.4
55.4
4 insults
25.3
13.6
5 insults
18.9
5.6
6 insults
18.7
3.8
7 insults
20.9
4.4
8 insults
26.5
7.1
The F'c'le
Assumes 234% item drops and that all clingy pirates are banished with cocktail napkins. DOES NOT INCLUDE the 1 turn spent getting the fledges.
No extra banishing
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
7.5
3.0
+5% combat
7.0
2.8
+10% combat
6.6
2.5
+15% combat
6.2
2.3
+20% combat
5.8
2.1
Banishes one of chatty/crusty
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
7.0
2.6
+5% combat
6.6
2.2
+10% combat
6.2
2.1
+15% combat
5.8
1.9
+20% combat
5.5
1.7
Banishes both chatty and crusty
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
6.6
2.2
+5% combat
6.2
1.9
+10% combat
5.8
1.7
+15% combat
5.5
1.5
+20% combat
5.1
1.3
Banishes everything that cannot drop a needed item
(i.e. if I already got a ball polish, banish the creamy pirate; only applies to challenge paths)
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
6.4
1.9
+5% combat
6.0
1.7
+10% combat
5.6
1.4
+15% combat
5.3
1.2
+20% combat
5.0
1.0
Smut Orc Logging Camp
All cases assume you use the bridge and no clovers. (Clovers save 3.5 turns with no items, 2.3 turns with 1 item, and 1.6 turns with both items.) This is for the quest post-August 14, 2013. If you have one of the two items, it auto-sniffs the first monster that drops the other bridge part. Otherwise, it will sniff one kind of bridge part if that part falls 5 or more behind the other part, and it has 25 or more of that other part. Assumes that the items each provide an independent 50% chance of an extra part. Does not include turn(s) spent to get the hatchet or loadstone.
With no special items
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+100% items
22.3
1.6
+150% items
21.9
1.4
+200% items
21.6
1.1
+250% items
21.3
0.9
+300% items
21.1
0.7
With either loadstone or hatchet
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+100% items
20.3
1.1
+150% items
20.1
1.2
+200% items
19.8
1.4
+250% items
19.6
1.4
+300% items
19.3
1.5
With both items
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+100% items
16.3
1.8
+150% items
16.0
1.8
+200% items
15.6
1.8
+250% items
15.3
1.8
+300% items
15.0
1.7
Castle Basement
Includes the turn ceiling on NCs. All cases correctly transverse the NCs. We're done when the Ground Floor is unlocked.
With no special items
Gets and uses the dumbbell.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
18.8
6.2
-5% combat
15.2
6.2
-10% combat
12.4
5.8
-15% combat
10.3
5.2
-20% combat
8.6
4.6
-25% combat
7.4
4.0
With an umbrella but no amulet
Uses the umbrella if it can, and tries for the dumbbell while doing so.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
14.9
7.1
-5% combat
12.0
6.6
-10% combat
9.9
6.0
-15% combat
8.2
5.3
-20% combat
6.9
4.6
-25% combat
5.9
4.0
With an amulet
First NC always clears it.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
8.0
3.0
-5% combat
6.5
3.4
-10% combat
5.4
3.3
-15% combat
4.5
3.1
-20% combat
3.8
2.8
-25% combat
3.2
2.4
Castle Top Floor
All cases assume you have a model airship and that you need to unlock the HitS. Includes the turn ceiling on NCs. We're done when the wheel is turned and we have the rocketship.
Without Mohawk wig
Solves both parts from the Steampunk NC, getting the wheel first to enable universal travel to that NC.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
22.1
8.9
-5% combat
17.9
8.2
-10% combat
14.7
7.4
-15% combat
12.3
6.6
-20% combat
10.4
5.7
-25% combat
8.9
5.0
With Mohawk wig
Gets the wheel first however it can, then gets the HitS.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
16.1
4.3
-5% combat
13.0
4.8
-10% combat
10.7
4.7
-15% combat
8.9
4.4
-20% combat
7.5
3.9
-25% combat
6.5
3.5
Desert / Oasis
This one is pretty robust:
First, finds the Oasis in the unhydrated Desert.
After that, it gets Ultrahydrated as needed, but superlikelies in the Oasis will correctly override that adventure.
If the stone rose is found before a drum machine, it will stay in the Oasis until it finds a blur (assumes 234% item drop).
We're done when we have the worm-riding hooks.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
32.4
8.1
1 clover
30.2
7.8
2 clovers
30.1
7.6
Superwater (KOLHS)
28.9
7.4
Belowdecks
Assumes you don't need a guitar, that you sniff the gaudy pirate, and that you don't banish anything. We're done when we have two gaudy keys.
Avg. Turns
Stdev
5.1
2.3
The Palindome
Assumes 234% item drops (to guarantee 1-turn ketchup hound and stunt nuts) and that all superlikelies (shelf items, Drawn Onward) are 25% rolls unaffected by combat rate.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
none
15.6
6.6
+5% combat
15.5
6.6
+10% combat
15.4
6.7
+15% combat
15.4
6.7
+20% combat
15.3
6.7
The Upper Chamber
All cases assume you sniff tomb rats. Does not include the turns spent rotating the Lower Chamber or fighting Ed. I haven't included banishing, but each monster you perma-banish with a turn-consuming banisher saves you roughly 1.0 - 1.5 turns. We're done when we have enough ratchets to complete all rotations with the listed setup.
Farm 9 ratchets, place the wheel, no tangles
Assumes you find the wheel while getting ratchets. Assumes -20% combat for placing the wheel.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+150% items
27.1
6.1
+200% items
23.2
4.8
+250% items
20.5
3.8
+300% items
18.4
3.1
+350% items
16.8
2.6
+400% items (capped)
15.5
2.2
Farm 9 ratchets, place the wheel, 1 tangle
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+150% items
24.6
6.0
+200% items
20.7
4.7
+250% items
17.9
3.8
+300% items
15.8
3.1
+350% items
14.2
2.5
+400% items (capped)
12.9
2.1
Farm 9 ratchets, place the wheel, 2 tangles
Around here you have the chance to not get the wheel at all; subtract 1 turn from these if you assume that.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+150% items
22.0
6.0
+200% items
18.1
4.7
+250% items
15.3
3.7
+300% items
13.2
3.0
+350% items
11.6
2.6
+400% items (capped)
10.3
2.0
Farm 9 ratchets, place the wheel, 3 tangles
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+150% items
19.4
5.9
+200% items
15.5
4.6
+250% items
12.7
3.7
+300% items
10.6
2.9
+350% items
9.0
2.4
+400% items (capped)
7.8
1.9
Farm 11 ratchets, do not place wheel, no tangles
Still assumes you get the wheel, even though you don't use it.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+150% items
30.3
6.5
+200% items
25.6
5.0
+250% items
22.2
3.9
+300% items
19.6
3.1
+350% items
17.7
2.4
+400% items (capped)
16.1
1.8
Farm 11 ratchets, do not place wheel, 1 tangle
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+150% items
27.8
6.5
+200% items
23.0
5.0
+250% items
19.6
3.9
+300% items
17.0
3.0
+350% items
15.1
2.3
+400% items (capped)
13.5
1.6
Farm 11 ratchets, do not place wheel, 2 tangles
Around here you have the chance to not get the wheel at all; subtract 1 turn from these if you assume that.
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+150% items
25.2
6.4
+200% items
20.4
4.9
+250% items
17.0
3.8
+300% items
14.5
2.9
+350% items
12.5
2.2
+400% items (capped)
10.9
1.5
Farm 11 ratchets, do not place wheel, 3 tangles
Modifiers
Avg. Turns
Stdev
+150% items
22.6
6.4
+200% items
17.8
4.9
+250% items
14.4
3.8
+300% items
11.9
2.9
+350% items
9.9
2.1
+400% items (capped)
8.3
1.4
The Hippy Camp (Verge of War)
Assumes you already have the Frat Warrior Fatigues. We're done when we've started the war.
