User:MindlessGames

My main is RoyalTonberry

Tuxedo Shirt

I am keeping this here for the time being, until I have enough data to present on the tuxedo shirt page.

As far as spading this goes, the base assumption that it adds 1-3 randomly needs to be evaluated first, then the others can happen.

If it's random 1-3, then we expect the following to happen.

We have observed 10s with Ode, Tux, and Blender.

Note that Blender will not affect how Ode adds adventures. Observing any 10s at all with Ode active rules out the possibility of Tux acting before Ode.

So Ode acts first!

We have observed 8s with Tux and Frosty's mug.

Note that if Frosty's mug acts before, we would see 7, 8, 9, 10 at 1/6, 1/3, 1/3, 1/6 distribution.

And if Frosty's mug acted after, we would see 7, 9, 10, 11 at 1/6, 1/3, 1/3, 1/6 distribution.

So Frosty's Mug acts first!

Martinis

Base Values	Percentage	Tux turns this into	Percentage	Observable Values	Percentage
Only Tux
5 6	50% 50%	6, 7, 8 7, 8, 9	1/3 of 50% 1/3 of 50%	6 7 8 9	16.66% 33.33% 33.33% 16.66%
Tux + Ode
7 8	50% 50%	8, 9, 10 9, 10, 11	1/3 of 50% 1/3 of 50%	8 9 10 11	16.66% 33.33% 33.33% 16.66%
Tux + Frosty's frosty mug
6 8	50% 50%	7, 8, 9 8, 9, 10	1/3 of 50% 1/3 of 50%	7 8 9 10	16.66% 33.33% 33.33% 16.66%
Tux + Blender
5 6 7	20% 50% 30%	6, 7, 8 7, 8, 9 8, 9, 10	1/3 of 20% 1/3 of 50% 1/3 of 30%	6 7 8 9 10	6.66% 23.33% 33.33% 26.66% 10%
Tux + Blender + Ode
7 8 9	20% 50% 30%	8, 9, 10 9, 10, 11 10, 11, 12	1/3 of 20% 1/3 of 50% 1/3 of 30%	8 9 10 11 12	6.66% 23.33% 33.33% 26.66% 10%

Disgorging and Pickpocketing

for n items all with drop rate p:
integrate over x: p*(1-p*x)^(n-1)
gives: -((1-p*x)^n) / n
evaluate 0 to 1 gives: -((1-p)^n) / n + 1/n
simplifying: 1/n * (1 - (1 - p)^n)

Castle data

it looks like you can expect:

• +0% combats --> (75+0)/((75+0) + (25-0)*2/3) = 81.82% combats
• +5% combats --> (75+5)/((75+5) + (25-5)*2/3) = 85.71% combats
• +10% combats --> (75+10)/((75+10) + (25-10)*2/3) = 89.47% combats
• +15% combats --> (75+15)/((75+15) + (25-15)*2/3) = 93.10% combats
• +20% combats --> (75+20)/((75+20) + (25-20)*2/3) = 96.61% combats
• +25% combats --> (75+25)/((75+25) + (25-25)*2/3) = 100% combats