User:Pnan
Martingale System Analysis for the MMG
Let {B} equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by {M} upon each loss.
| Bet # | Bet value | Net Meat after Losing N Bets | Net Meat after Winning the Nth Bet |
| N | B(MN-1) | -B(MN-1) | B-.002B(MN-1)) |
Calculating Initial Bet
- for {M}=2
Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ {X} = {B}
(Double your bet if you lose)
I am confident that I will not lose {N} bets in a row
| {N} | {X} | chance of losing it all |
| 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 2 | 3 | 25% |
| 3 | 7 | 12.5% |
| 4 | 15 | 6.25% |
| 5 | 31 | 3.125% |
| 6 | 63 | 1.5625% |
| 7 | 127 | 0.78125% |
| 8 | 255 | 0.390625% |
| 9 | 511 | 0.1953125% |
| 10 | 1023 | 0.09765625% |
...where X=MN-1
the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns.
Playing with Caution
If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. See Gambler's Fallacy Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.
A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the illusion of having a better chance). If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit. Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.
