User:Pnan: Difference between revisions
imported>Pnan Feel free to add to, edit, clean up, make pretty, etc this User Page (MMG stuff) im a html n00b |
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==Previous Accounts== | |||
'''Jantor''' | |||
<br>account created: 2006 | |||
<br>Runs and ascensions: | |||
<br>[[Pastamancer]] ([[Pastamastery]]) | |||
<br>[[Pastamancer]] ([[Springy Fusilli]])([[HCO]]) | |||
<br>[[Sauceror]] ([[HCO]]) | |||
This account expired during the third run. | |||
'''Paladen''' | |||
<br>account created: some time after [[NS13]] | |||
<br>Runs and ascensions | |||
<br>[[Pastamancer]] | |||
This account expired after defeating 999 hippies during the [[Mysterious Island Quest|Level 12 Quest]]. | |||
==Pnan== | |||
The name "Pnan" was randomly created by slapping keys on a [http://education.ti.com/educationportal/sites/US/productDetail/us_ti84pse.html calculator]. | |||
==Martingale System Analysis for the [[MMG]]== | |||
[[image:Oldman.gif|center]] | [[image:Oldman.gif|center]] | ||
Let '''{B}''' equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by '''{M}''' upon each loss. | Let '''{B}''' equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by '''{M}''' upon each loss. | ||
| Line 16: | Line 37: | ||
<td>'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>)</td> | <td>'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>)</td> | ||
<td>-'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1)</td> | <td>-'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1)</td> | ||
<td>'''B'''-.002 | <td>'''B'''(1-.002('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>))</td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
Revision as of 05:02, 22 October 2008
Previous Accounts
Jantor
account created: 2006
Runs and ascensions:
Pastamancer (Pastamastery)
Pastamancer (Springy Fusilli)(HCO)
Sauceror (HCO)
This account expired during the third run.
Paladen
account created: some time after NS13
Runs and ascensions
Pastamancer
This account expired after defeating 999 hippies during the Level 12 Quest.
Pnan
The name "Pnan" was randomly created by slapping keys on a calculator.
Martingale System Analysis for the MMG
Let {B} equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by {M} upon each loss.
| Bet # | Bet value | Net Meat after Losing N Bets | Net Meat after Winning the Nth Bet |
| N | B(MN-1) | -B(MN-1) | B(1-.002(MN-1)) |
Calculating Initial Bet
- for {M}=2
Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ {X} = {B}
(Double your bet if you lose)
I am confident that I will not lose {N} bets in a row
| {N} | {X} | chance of losing it all |
| 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 2 | 3 | 25% |
| 3 | 7 | 12.5% |
| 4 | 15 | 6.25% |
| 5 | 31 | 3.125% |
| 6 | 63 | 1.5625% |
| 7 | 127 | 0.78125% |
| 8 | 255 | 0.390625% |
| 9 | 511 | 0.1953125% |
| 10 | 1023 | 0.09765625% |
...where X=MN-1
the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns.
Playing with Caution
If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. See Gambler's Fallacy Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.
A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the illusion of having a better chance). If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit. Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.
