Superlikely

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The Hermit humbly requests that this page be rewritten or expanded. Many Superlikelies are missing. Existing Superlikelies are in need of information. (September 2019)

Contrary to popular belief, superlikelies are not any noncombat that is unaffected by +/- combat, or any noncombat with a condition on it. In fact, they're not really noncombats at all (unless you use the word "noncombat" to mean "anything that's not a combat", which is awkward). Superlikelies can be affected by +/- combat; Mr. Alarm was one of the affected ones.

So what is a superlikely? It's another class of encounters, and what's special about them is that every superlikely in the zone is checked when you adventure there, before normal combats/noncombats are considered. If you meet all of the conditions for a superlikely adventure (and didn't get any of the higher-tier encounters), you will always get the superlikely adventure. If you meet all of the conditions for multiple superlikelies, a 1DN is rolled to decide which you get (these include Bad Moon adventures).

An important point to consider is that not all encounters with conditions are superlikelies. Regular noncombat or combats can have conditions too. What distinguishes a superlikely is when the game checks to see if you'll get one.

Superlikely Adventures

Superlikely adventures are any adventure with conditions on it whose conditions are checked every time you adventure. Many of these adventures are unaffected by combat modifiers, but not all are. (See Jick's post in the notes for this definition.)

• All Bad Moon-specific adventures are superlikelies, with unknown conditions.
• The following list is not all-inclusive. It only contains the superlikelies of most interest to an ascender. For a complete list, see this page.

Location	Adventure Name	Description	Known Conditions
Outskirts of Cobb's Knob	Code Red	Receive Knob Goblin encryption key.	Always occurs on the 11th turn in the Outskirts.
The Degrassi Knoll Garage	Screwdriver, wider than a mile.	Receive rusty screwdriver.	25% roll.
The Haunted Billiards Room	That's your cue	Receive pool cue.	100%, must not have a pool cue in inventory. (Used to be a 25% roll.)
The Enormous Greater-Than Sign	The Oracle Will See You Now	Grants access to The Dungeons of Doom.	25% roll. Only occurs during Teleportitis with a plus sign in inventory.
The Black Forest	A Man in Black	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll affected by +/- combat, or 100% chance on the 12th turn in The Black Forest.
The Hidden Temple	Fitting In	Allows access to the temple's noncombats at will.	100% when adventuring with Stone-Faced.
The Hidden Hospital	You, M. D.	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	0-50% roll, 10% chance per "Makes you look like a doctor" item equipped
The Haunted Ballroom	We'll All Be Flat	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll, with a 5-turn floor (cannot occur earlier than turn 6). Only occurs after reading your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Palindome	Rod Nevada, Vendor	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Palindome	Last Egg Gets Al	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Palindome	Do Geese See God?	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	A Sietch in Time	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	100% chance with at least 10% desert exploration.
An Oasis	Glug, Glug, Glug	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	Adventure at An Oasis without the Ultrahydrated effect; consider using a clover instead for 20 turns of the effect.
The "Fun" House	Adventurer, $1.99	Part of the Me and My Nemesis quest.	delay() or floor of 10, then <guaranteed? mechanism needs content.>
All zones in Spookyraven Manor	Lights out in the <zone>	Lights Out Quest	Takes place every time when total turncount is a multiple of 37.
The Sleazy Back Alley	They Tried and Pailed	Receive pail of pretentious paint.	25% roll.
Outskirts of Cobb's Knob	Brushed off...	Receive pretentious paintbrush.	25% roll.
The Haunted Pantry	Shoe of Many Colors	Receive pretentious palette.	25% roll.
Pandamonium Slums	Highway to Hey Deze	Receive Hey Deze map.	25% roll.

Confirmation required

These encounters have many of the same features as the above list, but have not yet been categorised as superlikely (a more experienced player should confirm and move these rows into the above table when possible).

Location	Adventure Name	Description	Known Conditions
The Bat Hole sublocations	Screambat	Boss Bat Quest	Every 8 turns (counting across all zones here), until the walls are removed.
Cobb's Knob Harem	Plucked	The King of Cobb's Knob Quest	Guaranteed when you're wearing the Knob Goblin Harem Girl Disguise without the Knob Goblin Perfume effect.
The Defiled Alcove	Modern zmobie	Undefile the Cyrpt Quest	Combat Initiative will increase the occurrence of this encounter. The encounter rate is [15 + Init/10]%, which means that having +850% init will guarantee zmobie modernity.
Copse of the Deep Fat Friars	Various	Deep Fat Friars' Gate Quest	First encounter in the zone; and when no noncombats have been found in the last five turns, forces the next noncombat in the sequence.
The Goatlet	Like a Cheese Thief in the Cheese Night	Mt. McLargeHuge Quest	If 20 turns have been spent without getting the cheese to drop.
Lair of the Ninja Snowmen	ninja snowman assassin	Mt. McLargeHuge Quest	With +combat, turns 11, 21, and 31 in the zone, and randomly at a rate of most likely C/200+T*0.015, where C is +Combat% and T is turns spent in the zone.
The Old Landfill	Once More Unto the Junk	Hippy Boatman Quest	Guaranteed if a funky junk key is in the inventory.
Castle in the Clouds in the Sky	Arise!, Are you a Man or a Mouse?	Giant Trash Quest	Spending 35 turns in the Basement or Top Floor, without proceeding using the other noncombats.
The Castle in the Clouds in the Sky (Ground Floor)	Top of the Castle, Ma	Giant Trash Quest: Unlocks the The Castle in the Clouds in the Sky (Top Floor)	Guaranteed after spending 11 turns in the zone
The Smut Orc Logging Camp	smut orc pervert	Orc Chasm Quest	21st adventure, and every 20 after that (1+20A)
The Copperhead Club	Shen Copperhead, Nightclub Owner	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	Each instance in the series requires a certain amount of turns spent in the zone.
The Copperhead Club	Behind the 'Stache	Change the background effects	Crappily Disguised as a Waiter
The Barn	Cornered!, Cornered Again!, How Many Corners Does this Stupid Barn Have!?	Subquest for Mysterious Island Quest	Happens within 10 turns in the zone.

Adventures That Are NOT Superlikelies

This section is included so that when you look on this page to see whether a given adventure responds to -combat or not, and you don't see it listed in the previous section, you will be able to conclude "Oh, that's because it's not a superlikely" rather than "Oh, nobody knows yet".

Zone	Adventure	Then what is it?
The Poop Deck	It's Always Swordfish	A standard noncombat according to Jick (Feb 2009)

Obsolete

Removed or revamped superlikelies.

Location	Adventure Name	Description	Old Conditions
The Haunted Pantry	The Manor in Which You're Accustomed	Unlocks Spookyraven Manor.	Always occurs on the 9th, 10th, or 11th turn in the Pantry.
The Haunted Conservatory	Polo Tombstone	Receive Spookyraven gallery key.	Always occurs on the 8th, 9th, 10th, or 11th turn in the Conservatory, but only if you've read Chapter 2 of The Fall of the House of Spookyraven in The Haunted Library.
The Palindome	Drawn Onward/Retired	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll that may or may not be affected by +/- combat. Only occurs with the four required items in inventory.
Laboratory	Mr. Alarm, I Presarm	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll, affected by +/- combat. Must have completed Drawn Onward/Retired.
Laboratory	Mega Gem	Get the Mega Gem.	100% chance after Mr. Alarm with wet stunt nut stew in inventory. (Moved to Mr. Alarm's Office)
The Palindome	Dr. Awkward (Intro)	A NC 'choice' that leads to a fight.	100% chance with Mega Gem equipped. (Moved to Dr. Awkward's Office)
The Upper Chamber	Whee!	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll. May or may not be affected by +/- combat. (Zone revamped; replaced with A Wheel -- How Fortunate!)

Notes

• The most up-to-date data on superlikelies/non-combats and delays can be found on this post on the AFH forums.
• Jick confirmed the existence of superlikelies in this post.