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'''Jantor'''
'''Jantor'''
<br>account created: 2006
<br>account created: 2006
<br>Runs and ascensions:
<br>runs and ascensions:
<br>[[Pastamancer]] ([[Pastamastery]])
<br>[[Pastamancer]] ([[Pastamastery]])
<br>[[Pastamancer]] ([[Springy Fusilli]])([[HCO]])
<br>[[Pastamancer]] ([[Springy Fusilli]])([[HCO]])
Line 11: Line 11:


'''Paladen'''
'''Paladen'''
<br>account created: some time after [[NS13]]
<br>account created: 2007
<br>Runs and ascensions
<br>runs and ascensions:
<br>[[Pastamancer]]
<br>[[Pastamancer]]


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==Pnan==
==Pnan==
The name "Pnan" was randomly created by slapping keys on a [http://education.ti.com/educationportal/sites/US/productDetail/us_ti84pse.html calculator].  
<br>account created: September 2008
<br>runs and ascensions:
<br>[[Sauceror]] ([[Saucy Salve]])([[Summon Stickers]])
<br>[[Turtle Tamer]] ([[HCO]], [[Bad Moon]] lead in)
 
The name "Pnan" was randomly created by slapping keys on a [http://education.ti.com/educationportal/sites/US/productDetail/us_ti84pse.html calculator] while naming a program.
 
===Familiars===
Each of Pnan's familiars are anagrams of either the familiar, its hatchling, or its familiar equipment. Examples:
 
[[File:familiar1.gif|link=mosquito]] A Squalor Vomit, the [[Mosquito]] (anagram of [[mosquito larva]])
<br>[[File:dishand.gif|link=Disembodied Hand]] Obligatory Strong Pickax, the [[Disembodied Hand]] (anagram of [[spooky rattling cigar box]])
<br>[[File:familiar2.gif|link=leprechaun]] Ace Run Help, the [[Leprechaun]] (anagram of [[Leprechaun]])
<br>[[File:familiar16.gif|link=Cocoabo]] Colours Patches, the [[Cocoabo]] (anagram of [[chocolate spurs]])
<br>[[File:familiar11.gif|link=grue]] Urge, the [[Grue]] (anagram of [[Grue]])


==Martingale System Analysis for the [[MMG]]==
==Martingale System Analysis for the [[MMG]]==
Line 25: Line 39:


Let '''{B}''' equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by '''{M}''' upon each loss.   
Let '''{B}''' equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by '''{M}''' upon each loss.   
<table border=1, center>
<tr>
<td>Bet #</td>
<td>Bet value</td>
<td>Net Meat after Losing '''N''' Bets</td>
<td>Net Meat after Winning the '''N'''th Bet</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>N</td>
<td>'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>)</td>
<td>-'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1)</td>
<td>'''B'''(1-.002('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>))</td>
</tr>


</table>




{|
|-align="center"
| width="50"|Bet #
| width="100"|Bet value
| width="200"|Net Meat after Losing '''N''' Bets
| width="250"|Net Meat after Winning the '''N'''th Bet
|-align="center"
|N
|'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>)
|'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1)
|'''B'''(1-.002('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>))
|-
|}


==Calculating Initial Bet==
===Calculating Initial Bet===


*for '''{M}'''=2
*for '''{M}'''=2


Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ '''{X}''' = '''{B}'''
Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ '''{X}''' = '''{B}'''
(Double your bet if you lose)


I am confident that I will not lose '''{N}''' bets in a row
I am confident that I will not lose '''{N}''' bets in a row


{|
|-
! width="50"|{N}
! width="50"|{B}
! width="150"|chance of loosing it all
|-align="center"
| 1||1||50%
|-align="center"
| 2||3||25%
|-align="center"
| 3||7||12.5%
|-align="center"
| 4||15||6.25%
|-align="center"
| 5||31||3.125%
|-align="center"
| 6||63||1.5625%
|-align="center"
| 7||127||.78125%
|-align="center"
| 8||255||.390625%
|-align="center"
| 9||511||.195313%
|-align="center"
| 10||1023||.097656%
|-
|}


<table border=1>


<tr>
<td>'''{N}'''</td>
<td>'''{X}'''</td>
<td>chance of losing it all</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>6.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>3.125%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>1.5625%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>127</td>
<td>0.78125%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>255</td>
<td>0.390625%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
<td>511</td>
<td>0.1953125%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10</td>
<td>1023</td>
<td>0.09765625%</td>
</tr>
</table>


...where '''X'''='''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1
...where '''X'''='''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1
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the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns.
the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns.


== Playing with Caution ==
=== Playing with Caution ===


If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading.  See [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy Gambler's Fallacy]  Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically).  If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.
If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading.  See [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy Gambler's Fallacy]  Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically).  If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.


A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled).  This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the ''illusion'' of having a better chance).  If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit.  Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.
A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled).  This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the ''illusion'' of having a better chance).  If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit.  Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.

Latest revision as of 18:05, 3 August 2011

Previous Accounts

Jantor
account created: 2006
runs and ascensions:
Pastamancer (Pastamastery)
Pastamancer (Springy Fusilli)(HCO)
Sauceror (HCO)

This account expired during the third run.

Paladen
account created: 2007
runs and ascensions:
Pastamancer

This account expired after defeating 999 hippies during the Level 12 Quest.

Pnan


account created: September 2008
runs and ascensions:
Sauceror (Saucy Salve)(Summon Stickers)
Turtle Tamer (HCO, Bad Moon lead in)

The name "Pnan" was randomly created by slapping keys on a calculator while naming a program.

Familiars

Each of Pnan's familiars are anagrams of either the familiar, its hatchling, or its familiar equipment. Examples:

A Squalor Vomit, the Mosquito (anagram of mosquito larva)
Obligatory Strong Pickax, the Disembodied Hand (anagram of spooky rattling cigar box)
Ace Run Help, the Leprechaun (anagram of Leprechaun)
Colours Patches, the Cocoabo (anagram of chocolate spurs)
Urge, the Grue (anagram of Grue)

Martingale System Analysis for the MMG


Let {B} equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by {M} upon each loss.


Bet # Bet value Net Meat after Losing N Bets Net Meat after Winning the Nth Bet
N B(MN-1) B(MN-1) B(1-.002(MN-1))

Calculating Initial Bet

  • for {M}=2

Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ {X} = {B}

I am confident that I will not lose {N} bets in a row

{N} {B} chance of loosing it all
1 1 50%
2 3 25%
3 7 12.5%
4 15 6.25%
5 31 3.125%
6 63 1.5625%
7 127 .78125%
8 255 .390625%
9 511 .195313%
10 1023 .097656%


...where X=MN-1

the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns.

Playing with Caution

If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. See Gambler's Fallacy Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.

A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the illusion of having a better chance). If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit. Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.

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