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'''HC Mall Multi: Is there any way to send an item FROM a HC account's Hagnks with 0 meat there? help.'''
==Previous Accounts==
<br>[1]: gud meggsy!
 
<br>[1]: not if there's no meat in Hagnk's
'''Jantor'''
<br>[1]: you need the meat in Hagnk's to pay for the package
<br>account created: 2006
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: well that just sux. so much for having mall multi'''
<br>runs and ascensions:
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: can't sell my cigar box >_>'''
<br>[[Pastamancer]] ([[Pastamastery]])
<br>[2]: save your cigar box for a while, let it do some inflating
<br>[[Pastamancer]] ([[Springy Fusilli]])([[HCO]])
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: (sent all meat to multi before ascending, all i need is 50 friggin meat!!)'''
<br>[[Sauceror]] ([[HCO]])
<br>[3]: You'd take a loss, anyways. Mr As are selling for about 500,000 more than one.
 
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: tome will inflate more than the box, which dropped, was gonna trade'''
This account expired during the third run.
<br>[4]: Whoa... you just admitted to sending meat to a multi
 
<br>[1]: I don't want details but something in your description makes me think that could be considered multi abuse. But I'm turning a deaf ear right now
'''Paladen'''
<br>[4]: in open chat
<br>account created: 2007
<br>[2]: he did, huh?
<br>runs and ascensions:
<br>[4]: Not very smart
<br>[[Pastamancer]]
<br>[2]: recommend you stop talking openly about your multi-abuse
 
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: nope look at my account. 0 turns. impossible to abuse'''
This account expired after defeating 999 hippies during the [[Mysterious Island Quest|Level 12 Quest]]. 
<br>[4]: Don't be suprised if you get in trouble or disabled for that
 
<br>[1]: before someone feels inclined to tell #6
==Pnan==
<br>[4]: Wrong.
<br>account created: September 2008
<br>[1]: It's not impossible. Trust me on that
<br>runs and ascensions:
<br>[5]: No see, that looks even more like abuse
<br>[[Sauceror]] ([[Saucy Salve]])([[Summon Stickers]])
<br>[4]: You don't have to have turns for mutli abuse to occur.
<br>[[Turtle Tamer]] ([[HCO]], [[Bad Moon]] lead in)
<br>[6] runs into the chat room after playing too much Resident Evil Zero. :O
 
<br>[5]: If you have no turns run but lots of mall activity that's a dead giveaway
The name "Pnan" was randomly created by slapping keys on a [http://education.ti.com/educationportal/sites/US/productDetail/us_ti84pse.html  calculator] while naming a program.
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: *rolls eyes* the only way to abuse a multi is to use it and your main to buy raffles, in the case you both win'''
 
<br>[7]: poor multi
===Familiars===
<br>[8] grinds the Song of Storms on an organ all the while getting an eerie grin on his face and squinting his eyes
Each of Pnan's familiars are anagrams of either the familiar, its hatchling, or its familiar equipment. Examples:
<br>[7]: :(
 
<br>[5]: Plus the blatant "hay look at what I'm doing" name you have there
[[File:familiar1.gif|link=mosquito]] A Squalor Vomit, the [[Mosquito]] (anagram of [[mosquito larva]])
<br>[2]: i love multi czar's eye
<br>[[File:dishand.gif|link=Disembodied Hand]] Obligatory Strong Pickax, the [[Disembodied Hand]] (anagram of [[spooky rattling cigar box]])
<br>[1]: Oh bollocks... Now I'm going to have to report it.
<br>[[File:familiar2.gif|link=leprechaun]] Ace Run Help, the [[Leprechaun]] (anagram of [[Leprechaun]])
<br>[4]: Wow...
<br>[[File:familiar16.gif|link=Cocoabo]] Colours Patches, the [[Cocoabo]] (anagram of [[chocolate spurs]])
<br>[2]: multi abuse: anything that helps you advance faster than is normally possible
<br>[[File:familiar11.gif|link=grue]] Urge, the [[Grue]] (anagram of [[Grue]])
<br>[5]: That's the only way, huh?
 
<br>[4]: That is so not accurate.
==Martingale System Analysis for the [[MMG]]==
<br>Personal Robot Jesus: Who taught you that definition of multi abuse?
[[image:Oldman.gif|center]]
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: jick and crew have said they want HC mall functionality , but the hagnk's code is to weak. mall multis are acceptable substitues'''
 
<br>[6]: Wait, so it's multi abuse if you meat farm on multiple accounts every day and send all the meat ot your main? O_o
 
<br>Personal Robot Jesus: A homeless guy who's off his meds?
Let '''{B}''' equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by '''{M}''' upon each loss. 
<br>[5]: When did they say this?
 
<br>[1]: See, I just spent the last 7 hours sitting in a hospital watching my dad not be able to breath
 
<br>[4]: yes, [6], waaaay yes
 
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: you need to use adventures to meat farm!!! dang guys! n00bs.'''
{|
<br>[6]: ...Oops. :o
|-align="center"
<br>Personal Robot Jesus: That's pretty much the textbook case of multi abuse, [6]
| width="50"|Bet #
<br>[2]: hahahaha
| width="100"|Bet value
<br>[9]: was a homeless guy off his meds once
| width="200"|Net Meat after Losing '''N''' Bets
<br>[5]: What's your main, mall multi?
| width="250"|Net Meat after Winning the '''N'''th Bet
<br>[4]: We're n00bs.
|-align="center"
<br>[6] is a noob too.
|N
<br>[4]: Yeah, I wanna know the main account.
|'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>)
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: Pnan'''
|'''B'''('''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1)
<br>[10] gives LadyBoobs a big hug
|'''B'''(1-.002('''M'''<sup>N-1</sup>))
<br>[11]: oh Boobsa, I'm so sorry :(
|-
<br>[1]: And now I gotta be all modly.
|}
<br>Personal Robot Jesus: Really, Mall Multi? We didn't know that! Even those of us with 3 to 4 years of playing KoL had *no* idea that meat farming requires spending adventures!
 
<br>[11] gives a big hug, if that's ok
===Calculating Initial Bet===
<br>[4]: Holy shit he's only been playing since September and we're the n00bs.
 
<br>[10]: Wait. It does?
*for '''{M}'''=2
<br>[10]: SHIT! So that's what I've been doing wrong all these years. -hic-
 
<br>[2]: wait, you can't farm without spending adventures? this ruins my whole strategy!
Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ '''{X}''' = '''{B}'''
<br>[4]: I'm sorry Boobsa.
 
<br>[6]: Meat farming takes up adventures?! O_O
I am confident that I will not lose '''{N}''' bets in a row
<br>[1]: Perfectly fine. Thanks Kitch and Hi Pith!!
 
<br>[9]: I pretend im a newb on my new account
{|
<br>[9]: really I am an old old man
|-
<br>[6]: No way!
! width="50"|{N}
<br>[9]: really I am an 18 year old female
! width="50"|{B}
<br>[9]: robot
! width="150"|chance of loosing it all
<br>Personal Robot Jesus: guyz how i mine 4 multi abuse?
|-align="center"
'''<br>HC Mall Multi: yo Robot, these n00bs are trying to report multi abuse when i've used 0 turns ^_^'''
| 1||1||50%
<br>[9]: how do you mine meat kidfaces?
|-align="center"
<br>[10]: Hi Lady! I'd ask how you're doing but, well, I can take a pretty good guess.
| 2||3||25%
<br>Personal Robot Jesus: You don't have to spend turns to abuse a multi. I've already sent a Kmail to Multi Czar, so don't expect me to take your side.
|-align="center"
<br>[5]: This kids a real winner in't he?
| 3||7||12.5%
<br>[5]: I bet you argue with your math teacher too, don't you?
|-align="center"
<br>[4]: I was just about to send a message.
| 4||15||6.25%
<br>[4]: To 6.
|-align="center"
<br>Personal Robot Jesus: Also, you may want to check clan affiliations before calling someone a "n00b," then turning to me for support.
| 5||31||3.125%
<br>[1]: Thanks Pith. I'm not that bad off though
|-align="center"
<br>[11]: Oh god Hack, there's always one in math class isn't there?
| 6||63||1.5625%
<br>[4]: I wasn't going to until he started calling us n00bs/
|-align="center"
'''<br>private to Personal Robot Jesus: how then, have I abused?'''
| 7||127||.78125%
|-align="center"
| 8||255||.390625%
|-align="center"
| 9||511||.195313%
|-align="center"
| 10||1023||.097656%
|-
|}
 
 
 
...where '''X'''='''M'''<sup>N</sup>-1
 
the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns.
 
=== Playing with Caution ===
 
If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. See [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy Gambler's Fallacy] Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically).  If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.
 
A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled).  This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the ''illusion'' of having a better chance).  If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit.  Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.

Latest revision as of 18:05, 3 August 2011

Previous Accounts

Jantor
account created: 2006
runs and ascensions:
Pastamancer (Pastamastery)
Pastamancer (Springy Fusilli)(HCO)
Sauceror (HCO)

This account expired during the third run.

Paladen
account created: 2007
runs and ascensions:
Pastamancer

This account expired after defeating 999 hippies during the Level 12 Quest.

Pnan


account created: September 2008
runs and ascensions:
Sauceror (Saucy Salve)(Summon Stickers)
Turtle Tamer (HCO, Bad Moon lead in)

The name "Pnan" was randomly created by slapping keys on a calculator while naming a program.

Familiars

Each of Pnan's familiars are anagrams of either the familiar, its hatchling, or its familiar equipment. Examples:

A Squalor Vomit, the Mosquito (anagram of mosquito larva)
Obligatory Strong Pickax, the Disembodied Hand (anagram of spooky rattling cigar box)
Ace Run Help, the Leprechaun (anagram of Leprechaun)
Colours Patches, the Cocoabo (anagram of chocolate spurs)
Urge, the Grue (anagram of Grue)

Martingale System Analysis for the MMG


Let {B} equal the initial bet, which is multiplied by {M} upon each loss.


Bet # Bet value Net Meat after Losing N Bets Net Meat after Winning the Nth Bet
N B(MN-1) B(MN-1) B(1-.002(MN-1))

Calculating Initial Bet

  • for {M}=2

Total Meat Willing to Lose ÷ {X} = {B}

I am confident that I will not lose {N} bets in a row

{N} {B} chance of loosing it all
1 1 50%
2 3 25%
3 7 12.5%
4 15 6.25%
5 31 3.125%
6 63 1.5625%
7 127 .78125%
8 255 .390625%
9 511 .195313%
10 1023 .097656%


...where X=MN-1

the multiplier is usually 2, but can be higher for increased returns.

Playing with Caution

If you lose 9 bets in a row, the chance that you will lose the 10th bet is still 50%, so the percentages are somewhat misleading. See Gambler's Fallacy Also, assuming a 1% chance of failure, after 100 bets, that chance of failure becomes 100% (statistically). If you play long enough, you WILL lose it all, so know when to stop.

A technique to speed up the process of betting is to make bets in waves of 10. If 3 bets win and 7 lose, you would initiate 10 more bets (3 normal, 7 doubled). This method shows how the Martingale System falls apart because you could consistently win 9 bets, but lose the "same" bet over again, resulting in losing all of your meat at a 90% win rate (All bets are independent, so the order does not matter. Making successive bets creates the illusion of having a better chance). If you win a majority of the 10 bets, it is best to start with a fresh 10 bets since you already made a profit. Following the same logic, if you lose 6 and win 4, then you should only double 3, or 6-(4-1), of the bets, since the 4 wins swallow up 3 of the losses.

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