Superlikely

Contrary to popular belief, superlikelies are not any noncombat that is unaffected by +/- combat, or any noncombat with a condition on it. In fact, they're not really noncombats at all (unless you use the word "noncombat" to mean "anything that's not a combat", which is awkward). Superlikelies can be affected by +/- combat; Mr. Alarm is one of the affected ones.

So what is a superlikely? It's another class of encounters, and what's special about them is that every superlikely in the zone is checked when you adventure there, before normal combats/noncombats are considered. If you meet all of the conditions for a superlikely adventure (and didn't get any of the higher-tier encounters), you will always get the superlikely adventure. If you meet all of the conditions for multiple superlikelies, a 1DN is rolled to decide which you get (these include Bad Moon adventures).

An important point to consider is that not all encounters with conditions are superlikelies. Regular noncombat or combats can have conditions too. What distinguishes a superlikely is when the game checks to see if you'll get one.

Superlikely Adventures

Superlikely adventures are any adventure with conditions on it whose conditions are checked every time you adventure. Many of these adventures are unaffected by combat modifiers, but not all are. (See Jick's post in the notes for this definition.)

• All Bad Moon-specific adventures are superlikelies, with unknown conditions.
• The following list is not all-inclusive. It only contains the superlikelies of most interest to an ascender. For a complete list, see this page.

Location	Adventure Name	Description	Known Conditions
Outskirts of Cobb's Knob	Code Red	Receive Knob Goblin encryption key.	Always occurs on the 11th turn in the Outskirts.
Degrassi Knoll	Screwdriver, wider than a mile.	Receive rusty screwdriver.	25% roll.
The Haunted Pantry	The Manor in Which You're Accustomed	Unlocks Spookyraven Manor.	Always occurs on the 9th, 10th, or 11th turn in the Pantry.
The Haunted Billiards Room	That's your cue	Receive pool cue.	25% roll. Must not have a pool cue in inventory.
The Haunted Conservatory	Polo Tombstone	Receive Spookyraven gallery key.	Always occurs on the 8th, 9th, 10th, or 11th turn in the Conservatory, but only if you've read Chapter 2 of The Fall of the House of Spookyraven in The Haunted Library.
The Enormous Greater-Than Sign	The Oracle Will See You Now	Grants access to The Dungeons of Doom.	25% roll. Only occurs during Teleportitis with a plus sign in inventory.
The Black Forest	A Man in Black	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll affected by +/- combat, or 100% chance on the 12th turn in The Black Forest.
The Hidden Temple	Fitting In	Allows access to the temple's noncombats at will.	100% when adventuring with Stone-Faced.
The Haunted Ballroom	We'll All Be Flat	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll, with a 5-turn floor (cannot occur earlier than turn 6).
The Palindome	Rod Nevada, Vendor	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Palindome	Last Egg Gets Al	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Palindome	Do Geese See God?	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Palindome	Drawn Onward	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll that may or may not be affected by +/- combat. Only occurs with the four required items in inventory.
Laboratory	Mr. Alarm, I Presarm	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll, affected by +/- combat. Must have completed Drawn Onward.
Laboratory	Mega Gem	Get the Mega Gem.	100% chance after Mr. Alarm with wet stunt nut stew in inventory.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	Let's Make a Deal!	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	A Sietch in Time	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
An Oasis	All Across the Sands	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	No Colors Anymore	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	Still No Colors Anymore	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	Walk Without Rhythm	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	Walk Without Rhythm 2	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
An Oasis	Blowin' in the Wind (page 1)	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
An Oasis	Blowin' in the Wind (page 2)	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
An Oasis	Blowin' in the Wind (pages 3-15)	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	The Sleeper Has Awakened	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
The Upper Chamber	Whee!	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll. May or may not be affected by +/- combat.
The Worm Wood	All non-combats		Always occurs with 7-9 adventures of Absinthe-Minded, 4-5 adventures of Absinthe-Minded, or 1 adventure of Absinthe-Minded; see Worm Wood Done Quickly.
The Sleazy Back Alley	They Tried and Pailed	Receive pail of pretentious paint.	25% roll.
Outskirts of Cobb's Knob	Brushed off...	Receive pretentious paintbrush.	25% roll.
The Haunted Pantry	Shoe of Many Colors	Receive pretentious palette.	25% roll.
Pandamonium Slums	Highway to Hey Deze	Receive Hey Deze map.	25% roll.

Adventures That Are NOT Superlikelies

This section is included so that when you look on this page to see whether a given adventure responds to -combat or not, and you don't see it listed in the previous section, you will be able to conclude "Oh, that's because it's not a superlikely" rather than "Oh, nobody knows yet".

Zone	Adventure	Then what is it?
The Poop Deck	It's Always Swordfish	A standard noncombat according to Jick (Feb 2009)

Notes

• The most up-to-date data on superlikelies/non-combats and delays can be found on this post on the AFH forums.
• Jick confirmed the existence of superlikelies in this post.