Superlikely

Contrary to popular belief, superlikelies are not any noncombat that is unaffected by +/- combat, or any noncombat with a condition on it. In fact, they're not really noncombats at all (unless you use the word "noncombat" to mean "anything that's not a combat", which is awkward). Superlikelies can be affected by +/- combat; Mr. Alarm is one of the affected ones.

So what is a superlikely? It's another class of encounters, and what's special about them is that every superlikely in the zone is checked when you adventure there, before normal combats/noncombats are considered. If you meet all of the conditions for a superlikely adventure (and didn't get any of the higher-tier encounters), you will always get the superlikely adventure. If you meet all of the conditions for multiple superlikelies, a 1DN is rolled to decide which you get (these include Bad Moon adventures).

An important point to consider is that not all encounters with conditions are superlikelies. Regular noncombat or combats can have conditions too. What distinguishes a superlikely is when the game checks to see if you'll get one.

Superlikely Adventures

Superlikely adventures are any adventure with conditions on it whose conditions are checked every time you adventure. Many of these adventures are unaffected by combat modifiers, but not all are. (See Jick's post in the notes for this definition.)

• All Bad Moon-specific adventures are superlikelies, with unknown conditions.
• The following list is not all-inclusive. It only contains the superlikelies of most interest to an ascender. For a complete list, see this page.

Location	Adventure Name	Description	Known Conditions
The Haunted Ballroom	We'll All Be Flat	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. This adventure is also affected by delay.
The Haunted Billiards Room	That's your cue	Receive pool cue.	25% roll. Must not have a pool cue in inventory.
The Enormous Greater-Than Sign	The Oracle Will See You Now	Grants access to The Dungeons of Doom.	25% roll. Only superlikely with a plus sign and Teleportitis.
The Hidden Temple	Fitting In	Allows access to the temple's noncombats at will.	100% roll. Only triggers when adventuring with Stone-Faced.
The Palindome	Rod Nevada, Vendor	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Palindome	Last Egg Gets Al	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Palindome	Do Geese See God?	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
The Palindome	Drawn Onward	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	Unspaded rate. Must have read Your father's MacGuffin diary.
Laboratory	Mr. Alarm, I Presarm	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll, affected by combat modifiers. Must have completed Drawn Onward.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	Let's Make a Deal!	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	33% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	A Sietch in Time	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
An Oasis	All Across the Sands	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	No Colors Anymore	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	Still No Colors Anymore	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	Walk Without Rhythm	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	Walk Without Rhythm 2	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
An Oasis	Blowin' in the Wind (page 1)	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
An Oasis	Blowin' in the Wind (page 2)	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
An Oasis	Blowin' in the Wind (pages 3-15)	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert	The Sleeper Has Awakened	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	?% roll.
The Black Forest	A Man in Black	Part of the Quest for the Holy MacGuffin.	25% roll. Will always occur within 12 adventures and is affected by combat encounter modifiers.
The Worm Wood	All non-combats		Always occurs with 7-9 adventures of Absinthe-Minded, 4-5 adventures of Absinthe-Minded, or 1 adventure of Absinthe-Minded; see the Worm Wood Done Quickly.
Outskirts of Cobb's Knob	Code Red	Receive Knob Goblin encryption key.	Always occurs after 10 adventures.
Laboratory	Mega Gem	Get the Mega Gem.	Always occurs first adventure after Mr. Alarm with wet stunt nut stew in inventory.
The Haunted Conservatory	Polo Tombstone	Receive Spookyraven gallery key.	Delay. Always occurs within roughly 7-9 adventures (including delay), but only if you've read Chapter 2 of The Fall of the House of Spookyraven in The Haunted Library already.
The Haunted Pantry	The Manor in Which You're Accustomed	Unlocks Spookyraven Manor.	Delay. Always occurs within 8-10 adventures, including delay.
Degrassi Knoll	Screwdriver, wider than a mile.	Receive rusty screwdriver.	25% roll.
The Sleazy Back Alley	They Tried and Pailed	Receive pail of pretentious paint.	25% roll.
Outskirts of Cobb's Knob	Brushed off...	Receive pretentious paintbrush.	25% roll.
The Haunted Pantry	Shoe of Many Colors	Receive pretentious palette.	25% roll.
Pandamonium Slums	Highway to Hey Deze	Receive Hey Deze map.	25% roll.

Notes

• The most up-to-date data on superlikelies/non-combats and delays can be found on this post on the AFH forums.
• Jick confirmed the existence of superlikelies in this post.