Statistics Notes: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 09:18, 31 May 2025

Disclaimer

Remember: when viewing statistics on this website, they may not be totally accurate. The contributors to the wiki have done significant research (in most cases) before publishing statistics here, but there is nonetheless always the possibility for error.
Jick had stated that he usually codes drop values in multiples of five in the forums, but drop rates are kept to the nearest 0.1%, just in case. (Jick also said on a radio show in February of 2007 that this was in fact not correct, that item drop rates were only kept as integers.)
Information on specific statistical wiki-centered projects follows.

Yiab's Item Hunt

The main contributor to item drop statistics on this site was Yiab who used to ensure that the statistics were based on at least 1000 encounters with a given monster before publishing them. All item drop rates are rounded to the nearest 0.1% chance. If you wish to contact Yiab about this project, feel free. Data with only minor preprocessing is (was?) available upon request.
- NOTE: Due to the difficulty of automating combat in the Crimbo Town Toy Factory, only about 1/3 of the reliability can be attributed to the statistics that Yiab has gathered there.
A page has been written specifically to present condensed item drop statistics on a single page, in a format easily readable by computer. It is called Parseable Item Statistics. There is a similar page for the data concerning frequencies of adventures in areas, called Parseable Area Statistics.
Meat drops gathered during this project may contain the occasional error, as the primary goal of the project was to find out more about item drop rates. Meat drops appear to follow a triangular distribution. Similar to the ones mentioned above, there is a page summarizing meat drop data to be read by a computer, at Parseable Meat Statistics.
The following are approximate dates on which the statistics were calculated. If there has been a change in an area since that date, the statistics for that area may be completely invalidated.

Amateur Statistics

Some statistics may say: "Approx. X% Chance".
These are used for rough figures until Yiab posts more reliable data.

Drop-capping method

With power-creep over the years, capping drops has become more and more feasible, which a spade can use to their advantage. This method assumes that item drop rates really are always integer percent values as suggested in that Feb 07 radio show, and that the drop is either unconditional or has a condition that you can guarantee is true the entire session.

If you think the drop rate is, say, 20%, you should run a few dozen adventures with just enough bonus Item Drops from Monsters to cap a 21% drop rate. To calculate this:

(100 / 21) - 1 = 3.76
(100 / 20) - 1 = 4.00
(100 / 19) - 1 = 4.26

So you should aim for at least +376% item, but less than 400%. Adventure until the target enemy fails to drop the target item -- this will confirm that the drop rate is definitely less than 21%. Then, boost your item drops to at least 400%, but less than 426%. Adventure until either the item fails to drop (proving that the base rate is actually even lower) or you've spent an absolutely preposterous number of adventures on this. More adventures = more confidence!

After 100 wins and 100 drops at exactly +400% item drops, the probability that the drop rate is actually 19% is:

(.19 * 5.00 ) ^ 100 = 0.006

A small number, to be sure. Spend 50 more adventures, though, and...

(.19 * 5.00) ^ 150 = 0.0005

A whole order of magnitude more confidence! Is it enough? That's up to you, but know that you can't ever be 100% confident that you've really capped the drop rather than the RNG screwing with you -- but with enough adventures you can get as close to 100% confident as you like. The usual standard is 95% confidence, though you can certainly go higher if you have nothing better to do with your adventures.

Live. Ascend. Repeat.

The Fall 2017 challenge path has made spading drop rates below 50% much simpler. If (base rate * drop modifier) > 50, the item will drop every time. If not, it will never drop. RNG is no longer a factor.

Base Drop %	+Item% Needed To Guarantee Drop	Examples
5%	+900%	blasting soda
10%	+400%	filthworm scent glands
15%	+234%	A-Boo clues, rusty hedge trimmers
20%	+150%	tomb ratchet, harem pants, harem veil
25%	+100%	bird ribs, lion oil
30%	+67%	stars, lines, hot wings
35%	+43%
40%	+25%	goat cheese, bowling balls
45%	+12%
50+%	-	bubblin' crude, Gnollish toolbox, tires

This can still be used to spade drop rates above 50%, but there are fewer reliable methods of reducing one's drop rate, and much less room to work with.

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ==Disclaimer==
-Remember when viewing statistics on this website that they may not be totally accurate. The contributors to the wiki have done significant research (in most cases) before publishing statistics here, but there is always the possibility for error nonetheless.
+*Remember: when viewing statistics on this website, they may not be totally accurate. The contributors to the wiki have done significant research (in most cases) before publishing statistics here, but there is nonetheless always the possibility for error.
+*Jick had stated that he usually codes drop values in multiples of five in [http://forums.kingdomofloathing.com/vb/showpost.php?p=813434&postcount=5 the forums], but drop rates are kept to the nearest 0.1%, just in case. (Jick also said on a radio show in February of 2007 that this was in fact not correct, that item drop rates were only kept as integers.)
-Jick had stated that he usually codes drop values in multiples of five in the [http://forums.kingdomofloathing.com/viewtopic.php?p=811701&highlight=#811701 forums], but drop rates are kept to the nearest 0.1% just in case. (Jick also said on a radio show in February of 2007 that this was in fact not correct, that item drop rates were only kept as integers.)
+*Information on specific statistical wiki-centered projects follows.
-Information on specific statistical wiki-centered projects follows.
 ===Yiab's Item Hunt===
-Currently the main contributor to item drop statistics on this site is [[User:Yiab|Yiab]] who ensures that the statistics are based on at least 1000 encounters with a given monster before publishing them. All item drop rates are rounded to the nearest 0.1% chance. If you wish to contact Yiab about this project, feel free. Data with only minor preprocessing is available upon request.<br />
+*The main contributor to item drop statistics on this site was [[User:Yiab|Yiab]] who used to ensure that the statistics were based on at least 1000 encounters with a given monster before publishing them. All item drop rates are rounded to the nearest 0.1% chance. If you wish to contact Yiab about this project, feel free. Data with only minor preprocessing is (was?) available upon request.
-Note: Due to the difficulty of automating combat in the [[Crimbo Town Toy Factory]], about 1/3 the reliability can be attributed to Yiab's statistics gathered there.
+**'''NOTE''': Due to the difficulty of automating combat in the [[Crimbo Town Toy Factory (2005)|Crimbo Town]] [[Crimbo Town Toy Factory (2007)|Toy Factory]], only about 1/3 of the reliability can be attributed to the statistics that Yiab has gathered there.
+*A page has been written specifically to present condensed item drop statistics on a single page, in a format easily readable by computer. It is called [[Parseable Item Statistics]]. There is a similar page for the data concerning frequencies of adventures in areas, called [[Parseable Area Statistics]].
+*Meat drops gathered during this project may contain the occasional error, as the primary goal of the project was to find out more about item drop rates. Meat drops appear to follow a [[Wikipedia:Triangular distribution|triangular distribution]]. Similar to the ones mentioned above, there is a page summarizing meat drop data to be read by a computer, at [[Parseable Meat Statistics]].
+*The following are approximate dates on which the statistics were calculated. If there has been a change in an area since that date, the statistics for that area may be completely invalidated.
-A page has been written specifically to present condensed item drop statistics on a single page in a format easily readable by computer. It is called [[Parseable Item Statistics]]. There is a similar page for the data concerning frequencies of adventures in area called [[Parseable Area Statistics]].
+====Below This Line is Post-NS-13 Data====
+[[The Brinier Deepers]]: Oct. 25, 2008<br />
-Meat drops gathered during this project may contain the occasional error as the primary goal of the project was item drop rates. Meat drops appear to follow a [[Wikipedia:Normal distribution|normal distribution]]. As above, there is a page summarizing meat drop data to be read by a computer at [[Parseable Meat Statistics]].
-The following are approximate dates on which the statistics were calculated. If there has been a change in an area since that date, the statistics for that area may be completely invalidated.<br />
-[[The Brinier Deeps]]: Oct. 25, 2008<br />
 [[The Briny Deeps]]: Oct. 14, 2008<br />
 [[Degrassi Knoll]]: Jun. 17, 2008<br />
@@ Line 26: / Line 23: @@
 [[The Poop Deck]]: Jan. 28, 2008<br />
 [[The Guards' Chamber]]: Jan. 28, 2008<br />
-[[Belowdecks]]: Jan. 09, 2008 ([[Torso Awaregness|TA]] added Jan. 23, 2008)<br />
+[[Belowdecks]]: Jan. 09, 2008 ([[Torso Awaregness]] added Jan. 23, 2008)<br />
 [[The F'c'le]]: Jan. 07, 2008<br />
 [[The Junkyard]]: Jan. 04, 2008<br />
 [[Barrrney's Barrr]]: Dec. 31, 2007 (no path)<br />
-[[The Battlefield (War Hippy Fatigues)]]: Dec. 30, 2007 (no sidequests, heroes or [[Torso Awaregness|TA]])<br />
+[[The Battlefield (War Hippy Fatigues)]]: Dec. 30, 2007 (no sidequests, heroes, or [[Torso Awaregness]])<br />
 [[The Battlefield (Frat Warrior Fatigues)]]: Dec. 29, 2007 (no sidequests or heroes)<br />
 [[Crimbo Town Toy Factory (2007)]]: Dec. 17, 2007<br />
@@ Line 38: / Line 35: @@
 [[Orcish Frat House (Verge of War)]]: Nov. 03, 2007 (also Nov. 17, 2007)<br />
 [[The Hippy Camp (Bombed Back to the Stone Age)]]: Nov. 03, 2007<br />
-[[Wine Racks]]: Nov. 03, 2007<br />
+[[The Haunted Wine Cellar (obsolete)]]: Nov. 03, 2007<br />
 [[Whitey's Grove]]: Nov. 03, 2007<br />
 [[The Black Forest]]: Jul. 22, 2007<br />
-[[The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert]] (with [[Ultrahydrated]]): Jul. 26, 2007<br />
+[[The Arid, Extra-Dry Desert]]: Jul. 26, 2007 (with [[Ultrahydrated]])<br />
 [[The Palindome]]: Jul. 30, 2007<br />
 [[An Oasis]]: Aug. 14, 2007 (with [[Torso Awaregness]])<br />
@@ Line 48: / Line 45: @@
 [[The Upper Chamber]]: Aug. 31, 2007<br />
 [[The Middle Chamber]]: Aug. 31, 2007<br />
 ====Below This Line is Pre-NS-13 Data====
-[[Crimbo Town Toy Factory]]: Dec. 30, 2005<br />
+[[Crimbo Town Toy Factory (2005)]]: Dec. 30, 2005<br />
-[[The Goatlet]]: Jan. 5, 2006<br />
+[[The Goatlet]]: Jan. 05, 2006<br />
 [[Lair of the Ninja Snowmen]]: Apr. 16, 2006<br />
 [[The Valley Beyond The Orc Chasm]]: Dec. 30, 2005<br />
@@ Line 59: / Line 57: @@
 [[The Obligatory Pirate's Cove]]: Jan. 21, 2006<br />
 [[Fernswarthy's Tower]]: Jan. 27, 2006<br />
-[[The Misspelled Cemetary]] (Pre-Cyrpt): Jan. 30, 2006<br />
+[[The Misspelled Cemetary (Pre-Cyrpt)]]: Jan. 30, 2006<br />
 [[The "Fun" House]]: Jan. 31, 2006<br />
-[[Entryway|The Bat Hole Entryway]]: Feb. 02, 2006<br />
+[[Entryway]]: Feb. 02, 2006<br />
 [[Guano Junction]]: Jun. 01, 2006<br />
 [[Beanbat Chamber]]: Feb. 04, 2006<br />
@@ Line 78: / Line 76: @@
 [[The Spooky Forest]]: May 03, 2006<br />
 [[Harem]]: Mar. 25, 2006<br />
-[[The Deep Fat Friars' Gate|Deep Fat Friars' Gate]]: Mar. 25, 2006<br />
+[[The Deep Fat Friars' Gate]]: Mar. 25, 2006<br />
-[[The Sleazy Back Alley]]: Mar. 29, 2006 (additionally Jly. 14, 2006)<br />
+[[The Sleazy Back Alley]]: Mar. 29, 2006 (also Jul. 14, 2006)<br />
 [[The Spectral Pickle Factory]]: Apr. 01, 2006<br />
-[[Camp Logging Camp]]: Apr. 05, 2006 (additionally Nov. 08, 2006)<br />
+[[Camp Logging Camp]]: Apr. 05, 2006 (also Nov. 08, 2006)<br />
-[[The Inexplicable Door]]: Apr. 18, 2006 (additionally, May 19, 2006, additionally additionally Aug. 21, 2006)<br />
+[[8-Bit Realm]]: Apr. 18, 2006 (also May 19, 2006, also also Aug. 21, 2006)<br />
 [[The Hedge Maze]]: May 13, 2006<br />
-[[A Battlefield]]: Jun. 01, 2006 (in [[Cloaca-Cola Uniform]])<br />
+[[Cola Wars Battlefield (Cloaca Uniform)]]: Jun. 01, 2006<br />
 [[The Dungeons of Doom]]: Jun. 09, 2006<br />
 [[Spanish fly]] (from [[The Hippy Camp]]): Jun. 19, 2006<br />
-[[A Battlefield]]: Jun. 20, 2006 (in [[Dyspepsi-Cola Uniform]])<br />
+[[Cola Wars Battlefield (Dyspepsi Uniform)]]: Jun. 20, 2006<br />
 [[Orcish Frat House]] (again): Jun. 20, 2006<br />
 [[The Typical Tavern]]: Jun. 26, 2006<br />
-[[The Bugbear Pens]]: Jly. 10, 2006<br />
+[[The Bugbear Pen]]: Jul. 10, 2006<br />
-[[The Spooky Gravy Barrow]]: Jly. 18, 2006<br />
+[[The Spooky Gravy Barrow]]: Jul. 18, 2006<br />
-[[The Knob Shaft]]: Jly. 23, 2006<br />
+[[The Knob Shaft]]: Jul. 23, 2006<br />
-[[Bad Trip]]: Jly. 26, 2006<br />
+[[An Incredibly Strange Place (Bad Trip)]]: Jul. 26, 2006<br />
-[[Mediocre Trip]]: Jly. 28, 2006<br />
+[[An Incredibly Strange Place (Mediocre Trip)]]: Jul. 28, 2006<br />
-[[Great Trip]]: Jly. 30, 2006<br />
+[[An Incredibly Strange Place (Great Trip)]]: Jul. 30, 2006<br />
 [[roofie]] (from [[Orcish Frat House]]): Aug. 09, 2006<br />
 [[flaregun]] (from [[The Obligatory Pirate's Cove]]): Aug. 12, 2006<br />
@@ Line 110: / Line 108: @@
 ===Statistics from Others===
-[[Kitchens]]: May 17, 2006 --[[User:Eepiccolo|EEpiccolo]] 20:43, 17 May 2006 (CDT) <br />
+*[[Mr. Klaw "Skill" Crane Game]] and [[Deluxe Mr. Klaw "Skill" Crane Game]] - community effort - see the [[Talk:Mr. Klaw "Skill" Crane Game#Likelihood of success|talk]] [[Talk:Deluxe Mr. Klaw "Skill" Crane Game#Likelihood of Success|pages]].
-[[Mr. Klaw "Skill" Crane Game]] - community effort - see [[Talk:Mr. Klaw "Skill" Crane Game#Likelihood of success]].<br>
+*[[The Worm Wood]] (all sub-zones) - community effort - see the [http://forums.hardcoreoxygenation.com/viewtopic.php?t=3946 forum post].
-[[Wine Racks]] (approximate): July 11, 2007 --[[User:Poochy|Poochy]] 02:08, 11 July 2007 (CDT)<br>
-[[The Worm Wood]] (all sub-zones): July, 2007 - see http://jick-nerfed.us/forums/viewtopic.php?t=3946 --[[User:Shao Mi|Shao Mi]] 19:35, 25 July 2007 (CDT)
 ===Amateur Statistics===
-Some statistics may say: "Approx. X% Chance"
+*Some statistics may say: "Approx. X% Chance".
-These are used for rough figures until Yiab posts more reliable data.
+*These are used for rough figures until Yiab posts more reliable data.
+==Drop-capping method==
+With power-creep over the years, capping drops has become more and more feasible, which a spade can use to their advantage. This method assumes that item drop rates really are always integer percent values as suggested in that Feb 07 radio show, and that the drop is either unconditional or has a condition that you can guarantee is true the entire session.
+If you think the drop rate is, say, 20%, you should run a few dozen adventures with just enough bonus [[Item Drops from Monsters]] to cap a ''21%'' drop rate. To calculate this:
+(100 / ''21'') - 1 = 3.76<br>
+(100 / ''20'') - 1 = 4.00<br>
+(100 / ''19'') - 1 = 4.26
+So you should aim for at least +376% item, but less than 400%. Adventure until the target enemy fails to drop the target item -- this will confirm that the drop rate is definitely less than 21%. Then, boost your item drops to at least 400%, but less than 426%. Adventure until either the item fails to drop (proving that the base rate is actually even lower) or you've spent an absolutely preposterous number of adventures on this. More adventures = more confidence!
+After 100 wins and 100 drops at exactly +400% item drops, the probability that the drop rate is actually 19% is:
+(.19 * 5.00 ) ^ 100 = 0.006
+A small number, to be sure. Spend 50 more adventures, though, and...
+(.19 * 5.00) ^ 150 = 0.0005
+A whole order of magnitude more confidence! Is it enough? That's up to you, but know that you can't ever be 100% confident that you've really capped the drop rather than the RNG screwing with you -- but with enough adventures you can get as close to 100% confident as you like. The usual standard is 95% confidence, though you can certainly go higher if you have nothing better to do with your adventures.
+==Live. Ascend. Repeat.==
+[[Live. Ascend. Repeat.|The Fall 2017 challenge path]] has made spading drop rates below 50% much simpler. If (base rate * drop modifier) > 50, the item will drop every time. If not, it will never drop. RNG is no longer a factor.
+:{|cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" border="1"  class="wikitable"
+|- style="background-color: #DDDDDD"
+!Base Drop %
+!+Item% Needed<br>To Guarantee Drop
+!Examples
+|-
+| 5% || +900% || [[blasting soda]]
+|-
+| 10% || +400% || [[filthworm hatchling scent gland|filthworm]] [[filthworm drone scent gland|scent]] [[filthworm royal guard scent gland|glands]]
+|-
+| 15% || +234% || [[A-Boo clue]]s, [[rusty hedge trimmers]]
+|-
+| 20% || +150% || [[tomb ratchet]], [[harem pants]], [[harem veil]]
+|-
+| 25% || +100% || [[bird rib]]s, [[lion oil]]
+|-
+| 30% || +67% || [[star]]s, [[line]]s, [[hot wing]]s
+|-
+| 35% || +43% ||
+|-
+| 40% || +25% || [[goat cheese]], [[bowling ball]]s
+|-
+| 45% || +12% ||
+|-
+| 50+% || - || [[bubblin' crude]], [[Gnollish toolbox]], [[tires]]
+|-
+|}
-===Poochy's Statistics===
+This can still be used to spade drop rates above 50%, but there are fewer reliable methods of ''reducing'' one's drop rate, and much less room to work with.
-In lier of better data, [[User:Poochy|Poochy]] will sometimes run trials with a smaller sample size (usually between 100 and 300), and post an "approx. X% chance" or statistic. These should usually be accurate to within 5 percentage points in either direction (so, for example, an "approx. 75% chance" means the true base drop rate should be between 70% and 80%); however, this should be replaced with better data whenever possible.
 [[Category:Game Mechanics]]
 [[Category:Statistics]]

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Latest revision as of 09:18, 31 May 2025

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Disclaimer

Yiab's Item Hunt

Below This Line is Post-NS-13 Data

Below This Line is Pre-NS-13 Data

Statistics from Others

Amateur Statistics

Drop-capping method

Live. Ascend. Repeat.

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Statistics Notes: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 09:18, 31 May 2025

Disclaimer

Yiab's Item Hunt

Below This Line is Post-NS-13 Data

Below This Line is Pre-NS-13 Data

Statistics from Others

Amateur Statistics

Drop-capping method

Live. Ascend. Repeat.

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